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La Liga
Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias
Ath Madrid
S T T S S
2–1
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S S S
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,8
Scored
2,2
2,8
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,8
Scored
2,3
2,8
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%
18 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 1
2 Offside 2
19 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Real Madrid 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 +24 +14.3 21
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 +11 +10.4 15
3 Betis 6 5 0 1 +2 +0.3 15
4 Ath Madrid 6 4 1 1 +8 +3.3 13
5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 +1 -0.6 13
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 +5 +3.1 11
7 La Coruna 6 2 3 1 +2 -1.6 9
8 Ath Bilbao 6 2 2 2 +1 -1.1 8
9 Getafe 7 2 2 3 -3 -3.2 8
10 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 -5 -5.0 8
11 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 -7 -0.6 8
12 Celta 7 1 4 2 +2 -2.6 7
13 Espanol 7 2 1 4 +0 -1.5 7
14 Sociedad 6 2 1 3 -5 -3.2 7
15 Santander 7 2 1 4 -10 -2.8 7
16 Villarreal 6 1 2 3 -1 +0.6 5
17 Levante 5 1 2 2 -2 -0.0 5
18 Elche 7 1 2 4 -6 -6.3 5
19 Valencia 6 1 1 4 -8 -0.1 4
20 Malaga 7 0 3 4 -9 -3.3 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

22. Mar -26 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 3–2 27. Sep -25 Ath Madrid – Real Madrid 5–2 12. Mar -25 Ath Madrid – Real Madrid 1–0 4. Mar -25 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 2–1 8. Feb -25 Real Madrid – Ath Madrid 1–1

Match report

Ath Madrid Real Madrid
Diego Pablo Simeone 🟨
6′
Marc Pubill 🟨
35′
Cristian Romero ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade confirmed
38′
Cristian Romero 🟨
38′
Koke 🔁
↦ Marc Pubill
45′
Half-time 0–0
49′
🟨 Denzel Dumfries
51′
ℹ️ Dean Huijsen
VAR: Card upgrade confirmed
52′
🟥 Dean Huijsen
1–0 Alejandro Grimaldo ⚽
53′
54′
🔁 Antonio Rüdiger
↦ Arda Güler
54′
🔁 Yan Diomande
↦ Vinícius
2–0 Jonathan David ⚽
Giuliano Simeone Baldini
59′
Julián Álvarez 🔁
↦ Jonathan David
62′
Ademola Lookman 🔁
↦ Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
67′
71′
🔁 Eduardo Camavinga
↦ Aurelien Tchouameni
78′
🟨 Jude Bellingham
82′
🔁 Bernardo Silva
↦ Jude Bellingham
Robin Le Normand 🔁
↦ Cristian Romero
89′
Morten Hjulmand 🔁
↦ Lee Kang-In
89′
89′
⚽ Antonio Rüdiger 2–1
Bernardo Silva
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
18 Marc Pubill D
21 C. Romero D
17 D. Hancko D
20 G. Simeone M
10 Álex Baena M
5 J. Cardoso M
22 Álex Grimaldo M
7 Lee Kang-In F
15 J. David F
Bench (12)
46 J. Castillo
19 J. Álvarez
27 J. Dominguez
23 M. Hjulmand
6 Koke
24 Robin Le Normand
11 A. Lookman
4 Rodrigo Mendoza
1 J. Musso
16 Arnau Ortiz
3 O. Vargas
30 Dani Martínez

Coach: D. Simeone

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois G
24 D. Dumfries D
16 I. Konaté D
4 D. Huijsen D
17 Marc Cucurella D
8 F. Valverde M
14 A. Tchouaméni M
15 A. Güler M
5 J. Bellingham M
7 Vinícius Júnior M
10 Kylian Mbappé F
Bench (12)
2 Raúl Asencio
6 E. Camavinga
18 Álvaro Fernández
21 Brahim Díaz
25 Y. Diomande
9 Endrick
19 Carlos Espí
13 A. Lunin
27 Thiago Pitarch
22 A. Rüdiger
20 Bernardo Silva
12 T. Alexander-Arnold

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,50
🔒
U
3,75
🔒
B
2,05
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,14
🔒
U1,5
5,00
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,51
🔒
U2,5
2,39
🔒
O3,5
2,37
🔒
U3,5 ✓
1,64
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,46
🔒
BLS nei
2,55
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.