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Ligue 1

Referee: Willy Delajod

Nice

S U T U T

2–1

Full-time

Lille

S U S T S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

0,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

0,3

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 7

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 18. · Lille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+5	+1.1	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	+8	-1.0	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
4	Lille	4	3	1	0	+5	-0.9	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	-1	-1.2	10
6	Angers	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.5	7
7	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.8	7
8	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.1	6
9	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	-5	-2.3	6
10	Paris SG	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.4	5
11	Brest	5	1	2	2	-1	+4.0	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.7	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.2	5
14	Lens	5	1	1	3	+0	+3.7	4
15	Troyes	5	1	1	3	-7	-0.4	4
16	Marseille	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.4	3
17	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	-3	-1.8	2
18	Nice	4	0	2	2	-4	-1.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lyon	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.1	7
2	Paris FC	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.6	7
3	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.2	7
4	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
5	Auxerre	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
6	Le Mans	3	1	2	0	+1	-2.1	5
7	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.2	4
8	Strasbourg	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
9	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+3	+1.7	3
10	Lens	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.6	3
11	Angers	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.8	3
12	Toulouse	3	1	0	2	-2	+2.1	3
13	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
14	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
15	Brest	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.0	1
16	Le Havre	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
17	Troyes	2	0	1	1	-4	-1.4	1
18	Paris SG	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.8	7
2	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.8	6
3	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.4	5
4	Angers	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
5	Lyon	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.1	4
6	Paris FC	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
7	Brest	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.1	4
8	Lorient	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
9	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.7	3
10	Rennes	2	1	0	1	-3	–	3
11	Troyes	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.0	3
12	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
13	Le Havre	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
14	Le Mans	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
15	Lens	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.1	1
16	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.3	0
17	Nice	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.6	0
18	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.