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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera

Real Madrid

S S S S S

4–0

Full-time

Malaga

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Malaga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

3,0

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,62 xG 0,71

56% Possession 44%

19 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 4. · Malaga 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+4	-2.0	7
2	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.7	7
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+7	+7.7	6
4	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.2	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.6	6
6	Betis	3	2	0	1	-1	-1.4	6
7	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
8	Levante	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
9	Santander	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.0	4
10	Espanol	3	1	0	2	+1	-1.4	3
11	Getafe	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.8	3
12	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.4	3
13	La Coruna	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
14	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.2	2
15	Vallecano	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
16	Celta	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
17	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
18	Malaga	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
19	Elche	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.5	1
20	Ath Bilbao	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.1	6
2	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.0	4
3	Santander	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
4	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
6	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.4	3
7	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+4.0	3
8	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
9	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
10	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
11	Sevilla	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
12	Vallecano	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.6	1
13	La Coruna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
14	Malaga	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.8	1
15	Osasuna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
16	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
17	Celta	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.5	0
18	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
19	Elche	1	0	0	1	-5	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+5	+3.7	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
3	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.0	3
4	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.5	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
6	Betis	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
7	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.2	2
8	Alaves	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
9	La Coruna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
10	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Elche	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
12	Levante	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
13	Espanol	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
14	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
15	Santander	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
16	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	-4.0	0
17	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
18	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
19	Sociedad	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.