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Primeira Liga

Referee: Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Estoril

T T T U T

1–2

Full-time

Casa Pia

T T T U T

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,3

0,2

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,3

0,2

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 17. · Casa Pia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+13	+5.4	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+17	+9.3	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	4	3	0	+9	+4.3	15
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+3	-1.3	11
6	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	+0	-3.2	11
7	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.7	10
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	+0	-0.2	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	+0	+2.5	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.1	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	-1.1	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-6	-4.7	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	-0.9	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	-3	+4.1	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	-3.3	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	-5.1	4
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	-6	-4.0	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	-14	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.6	10
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.4	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.8	7
4	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.0	7
5	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.5	7
6	Arouca	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
7	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
8	Alverca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.4	5
9	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	+4.6	5
10	Estrela	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.5	5
11	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-2.5	4
12	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.2	4
13	Academico Viseu	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.4	3
14	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.1	3
15	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
16	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
17	Rio Ave	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.2	1
18	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-11	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+14	+5.3	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+2.0	9
3	Academico Viseu	4	2	2	0	+3	-1.8	8
4	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.7	7
5	Sp Lisbon	3	1	2	0	+4	+2.7	5
6	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+3	+0.1	5
7	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
8	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-1	-4.0	5
9	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
10	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.3	4
11	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.2	4
12	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.7	3
13	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.9	3
14	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
15	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.2	1
16	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
17	Guimaraes	3	0	0	3	-3	-0.5	0
18	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.