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Taça de Portugal
Paredes
T S T T S
5–1
Full-time
⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paredes Maria da Fonte
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
2,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-1,2
This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
4,0
1,0
Scored
3,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Paredes 34. · Maria da Fonte 46.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Vianense 2 2 0 0 +10 6
2 Alcochetense 2 2 0 0 +10 6
3 Bragança 2 2 0 0 +9 6
4 Atlético CP 2 2 0 0 +7 6
5 UD da Serra 2 2 0 0 +6 6
6 Sanjoanense 2 2 0 0 +6 6
7 Fazendense 2 2 0 0 +6 6
8 Os Limianos 2 2 0 0 +6 6
9 Fátima 2 2 0 0 +5 6
10 Fafe 2 2 0 0 +5 6
11 Os Marialvas 2 2 0 0 +5 6
12 Vitória de Sernache 2 2 0 0 +4 6
13 CF Os Belenenses 2 2 0 0 +3 6
14 Oliveira Hospital 2 2 0 0 +2 6
15 Salgueiros 2 2 0 0 +2 6
16 Louletano 2 2 0 0 +2 6
17 Alpendorada 2 1 1 0 +3 4
18 Mafra 2 1 1 0 +1 4
19 O Elvas 2 1 0 1 +7 3
20 Portel 2 1 0 1 +7 3
21 Guarda 2 1 0 1 +5 3
22 União Santarém 1 1 0 0 +5 3
23 Brito 1 1 0 0 +5 3
24 Tondela 1 1 0 0 +4 3
25 Sacavenense 2 1 0 1 +4 3
26 Leixoes 1 1 0 0 +4 3
27 Varzim 2 1 0 1 +3 3
28 Oliveirense 2 1 0 1 +3 3
29 Recreativa de Lamelas 1 1 0 0 +3 3
30 Academica 1 1 0 0 +3 3
31 Juventude Évora 2 1 0 1 +2 3
32 Mação 2 1 0 1 +2 3
33 Lusitânia Lourosa 1 1 0 0 +2 3
34 Paredes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
35 AVS 1 1 0 0 +2 3
36 Leça 1 1 0 0 +2 3
37 União de Leiria 1 1 0 0 +2 3
38 Felgueiras 1932 1 1 0 0 +2 3
39 Amarante 1 1 0 0 +2 3
40 Madalena 2 1 0 1 +1 3
41 FC Serpa 2 1 0 1 +1 3
42 CF Benfica 2 1 0 1 +1 3
43 Chaves 1 1 0 0 +1 3
44 Penafiel 1 1 0 0 +1 3
45 Alcains 1 1 0 0 +1 3
46 Maria da Fonte 1 1 0 0 +1 3
47 AD Marco 09 1 1 0 0 +1 3
48 Olhanense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
49 Portimonense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
50 Farense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
51 Santo Antonio 2 1 0 1 +0 3
52 Sintrense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
53 Aljustrelense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
54 Naval 1893 2 1 0 1 +0 3
55 Real 2 1 0 1 -2 3
56 Merelinense 2 1 0 1 -3 3
57 Cinfães 2 1 0 1 -3 3
58 Celoricense 2 1 0 1 -4 3
59 União Lamas 1 0 1 0 +0 1
60 Rebordosa 1 0 1 0 +0 1
61 Tirsense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
62 Machico 1 0 1 0 +0 1
63 Camacha 1 0 1 0 +0 1
64 Montalegre 1 0 1 0 +0 1
65 SC Covilha 1 0 1 0 +0 1
66 Florgrade 1 0 1 0 +0 1
67 São João Ver 1 0 1 0 +0 1
68 Maia Lidador 1 0 1 0 +0 1
69 Vila Meã 1 0 1 0 +0 1
70 Beira-Mar 2 0 1 1 -2 1
71 Ponte da Barca 2 0 1 1 -2 1
72 Mortágua 2 0 1 1 -2 1
73 Amora 1 0 0 1 -1 0
74 Atlético Malveira 1 0 0 1 -1 0
75 Sousense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
76 Lusitano Évora 1911 1 0 0 1 -1 0
77 Pacos Ferreira 1 0 0 1 -1 0
78 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
79 Sertanense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
80 Uniao Nogueirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
81 Mocarriense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
82 Régua 1 0 0 1 -1 0
83 1º Dezembro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
84 Castrense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
85 Sourense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
86 Castro Daire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Ovarense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Espinho 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Pevidem 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 Caldas 1 0 0 1 -2 0
91 Benfica Castelo Branco 1 0 0 1 -2 0
92 Estrela Calheta 1 0 0 1 -2 0
93 AD Nogueirense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
94 Ermesinde 1 0 0 1 -2 0
95 Atlético Arcos 1 0 0 1 -2 0
96 O Grandolense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
97 SC Barreiro 1 0 0 1 -3 0
98 Lagoa 1 0 0 1 -3 0
99 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -3 0
100 Correlhã 1 0 0 1 -3 0
101 Ançã 1 0 0 1 -3 0
102 União Montemor 1 0 0 1 -3 0
103 Pacos de Brandao 1 0 0 1 -3 0
104 Ferreiras 1 0 0 1 -3 0
105 Viana Alentejo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
106 Nazarenos 1 0 0 1 -3 0
107 Portalegrense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
108 Trofense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
109 Imortal Albufeira 1 0 0 1 -4 0
110 Lajense 1 0 0 1 -4 0
111 Rebordelo 1 0 0 1 -4 0
112 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 0 1 -4 0
113 Penalva Castelo 1 0 0 1 -4 0
114 AD Fornos Algodres 1 0 0 1 -4 0
115 Ginásio Figueirense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
116 Uniao de Pombal 1 0 0 1 -5 0
117 Angrense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
118 Gavionenses 1 0 0 1 -5 0
119 Vila Pouca 1 0 0 1 -5 0
120 Académico do Fundão 1 0 0 1 -6 0
121 Minas de Argozelo 1 0 0 1 -8 0
122 Fayal 1 0 0 1 -8 0
123 Messejanense 1 0 0 1 -8 0
124 São Roque (Açores) 1 0 0 1 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Paredes Maria da Fonte
1–0
5′
2–0
9′
37′
2–1
3–1
44′
Half-time 4–1
4–1
64′
5–1
74′
Full-time 5–1

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,18
U
5,30
B
13,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,18
U1,5
4,33
O2,5 ✓
1,65
U2,5
2,07
O3,5 ✓
2,62
U3,5
1,42
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
2,45
BLS nei
1,48

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.