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La Liga
Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano
Elche
U T T T U
2–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S T S S
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elche Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
0%
83%
Points per game
0,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,5
Scored
1,2
2,7
Conceded
2,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
0%
80%
Points per game
0,4
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
60%
80%
Both score Ø 70%
80%
60%
Average goals
3,8
3,6
Scored
1,2
2,8
Conceded
2,6
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,4
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,78 xG 3,61
56% Possession 44%
11 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 5
1 Offside 5
21 Free kicks against 8
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Elche 20. · Real Madrid 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 5 5 0 0 +17 +9.6 15
2 Real Madrid 5 4 0 1 +10 +7.5 12
3 Betis 5 4 0 1 +1 +0.3 12
4 Alaves 6 3 1 2 +5 +3.1 10
5 Ath Madrid 5 3 1 1 +4 -0.2 10
6 Sevilla 5 3 1 1 +2 -0.6 10
7 La Coruna 5 2 3 0 +3 -1.6 9
8 Espanol 6 2 1 3 +2 -1.5 7
9 Ath Bilbao 5 2 1 2 +1 -1.1 7
10 Santander 5 2 1 2 +0 +2.0 7
11 Osasuna 5 2 1 2 -3 +2.9 7
12 Vallecano 6 2 1 3 -5 -5.0 7
13 Sociedad 6 2 1 3 -5 -3.2 7
14 Levante 5 1 2 2 -2 -0.0 5
15 Getafe 5 1 2 2 -3 -3.2 5
16 Celta 6 0 4 2 -3 -2.6 4
17 Valencia 6 1 1 4 -8 -0.1 4
18 Malaga 5 0 3 2 -6 -3.3 3
19 Villarreal 5 0 2 3 -3 +0.6 2
20 Elche 5 0 2 3 -7 -3.5 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

14. Mar -26 Real Madrid – Elche 4–1 23. Nov -25 Elche – Real Madrid 2–2 15. Feb -23 Real Madrid – Elche 4–0 19. Oct -22 Elche – Real Madrid 0–3 23. Jan -22 Real Madrid – Elche 2–2

Match report

Elche Real Madrid
4′
🟨 Yan Diomande
25′
⚽ Matías Dituro 1–0
own goal
Marc Aguado 🟨
31′
33′
⚽ Kylian Mbappé 1–1
Yan Diomande
Half-time 1–1
Lucas Cepeda 🔁
↦ Marc Aguado
58′
Thomas Lemar 🔁
↦ Germán Valera
58′
68′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Vinícius
68′
🔁 Jude Bellingham
↦ Arda Güler
Ruben Sanchez Saez 🔁
↦ Buba Sangaré
68′
Fernando Niño Rodríguez 🔁
↦ Martim Neto
68′
2–1 Abiel Alessio Osorio ⚽
Lucas Cepeda
71′
73′
🟨 Ibrahima Konaté
Lucas Cepeda 🟨
78′
José Antonio Ferrández Pomares 🔁
↦ Tete Morente
80′
3–1 Fernando Niño Rodríguez ⚽
José Antonio Ferrández Pomares
83′
86′
🔁 Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
↦ Aurelien Tchouameni
87′
🔁 Carlos Espí
↦ Trent Alexander-Arnold
91′
⚽ Carlos Espí 3–2
Kylian Mbappé
92′
🔁 Denzel Dumfries
↦ Yan Diomande
José Antonio Ferrández Pomares 🟨
93′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Elche

3-4-3
1 M. Dituro G
2 Buba Sangaré D
5 F. Redondo D
23 Víctor Chust D
20 Tete Morente M
12 Gonzalo Villar M
8 Marc Aguado M
3 R. Revivo M
16 Martim Neto F
24 A. Osorio F
11 Germán Valera F
Bench (12)
26 Matia Barzic Gutiérrez
6 Bigas
10 F. Buonanotte
21 L. Cepeda
19 G. Diangana
13 Alejandro Iturbe
17 Josan
18 T. Lemar
14 Fer Niño
9 E. Ponce
22 Rubén Sánchez
47 J. Morcillo

Coach: M. Anselmi

Real Madrid

4-4-2
1 T. Courtois G
12 T. Alexander-Arnold D
16 I. Konaté D
4 D. Huijsen D
17 Marc Cucurella D
25 Y. Diomande M
8 F. Valverde M
14 A. Tchouaméni M
15 A. Güler M
10 Kylian Mbappé F
7 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
20 Bernardo Silva
22 A. Rüdiger
27 Thiago Pitarch
13 A. Lunin
19 Carlos Espí
9 Endrick
24 D. Dumfries
21 Brahim Díaz
18 Álvaro Fernández
6 E. Camavinga
2 Raúl Asencio
5 J. Bellingham

Coach: José Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
11,64
🔒
U
7,39
🔒
B ✓
1,20
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,06
🔒
U1,5
8,00
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,30
🔒
U2,5
3,43
🔒
O3,5 ✓
1,81
🔒
U3,5
2,07
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,70
🔒
BLS nei
2,05
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jesus Gil Manzano · 114 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.