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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Schlager

Paderborn

S S U T T

3–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

S T T S T

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,3

4,3

Scored

0,0

2,0

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

34% Possession 66%

13 Shots 23

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 13

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paderborn 16. · Hoffenheim 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	+0.6	12
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+12	+3.3	10
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	+9	+1.8	10
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+5	+1.6	7
5	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+5	+0.6	7
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+4	+0.5	7
7	Elversberg	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.6	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	+4	+2.9	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.4	5
11	Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.6	5
12	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.1	4
13	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
14	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	-3	-3.3	3
15	Hamburg	4	1	0	3	-11	-0.6	3
16	Paderborn	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.5	1
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	-13	+0.4	1
18	M'gladbach	4	0	0	4	-10	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+11	+3.3	6
2	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+8	+1.8	6
3	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+8	+2.9	6
4	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
5	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.6	6
6	Werder Bremen	2	2	0	0	+3	–	6
7	Augsburg	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.6	4
8	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
9	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
10	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	–	3
11	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
12	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-4	–	3
13	Schalke 04	2	0	2	0	+0	–	2
14	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.4	1
15	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
16	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	1	1	-3	–	1
17	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-2	–	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mainz	2	2	0	0	+6	–	6
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+2	–	6
3	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.4	4
4	Elversberg	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
5	Freiburg	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
6	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+1	–	4
7	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+2	–	3
8	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
9	Leverkusen	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
10	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
11	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
12	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-4	–	0
14	RB Leipzig	2	0	0	2	-4	–	0
15	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.3	0
16	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	-7	-0.6	0
17	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.9	0
18	Union Berlin	2	0	0	2	-11	–	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.