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Süper Lig

Referee: Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy

Erzurumspor

T T U S T

1–0

Full-time

Samsunspor

U S T T T

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzurumspor Samsunspor

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Süper Lig · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

2,6

3,4

Scored

0,4

1,2

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,77 xG 0,40

43% Possession 57%

8 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Erzurumspor 16. · Samsunspor 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Galatasaray	6	4	1	1	+3	+7.5	13
2	Besiktas	5	4	0	1	+8	+6.7	12
3	Kocaelispor	6	4	0	2	+3	-2.6	12
4	Alanyaspor	6	3	2	1	+2	-1.0	11
5	Trabzonspor	6	3	1	2	+8	+1.1	10
6	Amedspor	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.7	10
7	Kasimpasa	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.1	10
8	Rizespor	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.4	9
9	Gaziantep	6	2	2	2	+0	-0.6	8
10	Fenerbahce	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.7	7
11	Corum	6	2	1	3	+1	-1.5	7
12	Buyuksehyr	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.9	7
13	Genclerbirligi	6	2	1	3	-8	-6.3	7
14	Konyaspor	6	1	1	4	-4	+0.1	4
15	Samsunspor	5	1	1	3	-5	-1.9	4
16	Erzurumspor	5	1	1	3	-9	-5.9	4
17	Eyüpspor	5	1	0	4	-6	-3.5	3
18	Goztep	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Trabzonspor	3	3	0	0	+10	+4.1	9
2	Amedspor	3	3	0	0	+9	+6.4	9
3	Besiktas	3	3	0	0	+8	+5.3	9
4	Kocaelispor	3	3	0	0	+5	+0.7	9
5	Buyuksehyr	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.8	7
6	Galatasaray	3	2	1	0	+2	+6.2	7
7	Alanyaspor	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
8	Genclerbirligi	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.2	4
9	Fenerbahce	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.0	3
10	Corum	3	1	0	2	+1	+2.6	3
11	Kasimpasa	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.3	3
12	Konyaspor	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.6	3
13	Eyüpspor	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
14	Erzurumspor	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.9	3
15	Gaziantep	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.2	2
16	Samsunspor	3	0	1	2	-6	-0.6	1
17	Goztep	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.4	0
18	Rizespor	2	0	0	2	-3	+1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rizespor	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.9	9
2	Kasimpasa	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.4	7
3	Alanyaspor	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.8	7
4	Galatasaray	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.3	6
5	Gaziantep	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.5	6
6	Fenerbahce	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.7	4
7	Corum	3	1	1	1	+0	-4.0	4
8	Samsunspor	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.4	3
9	Besiktas	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.4	3
10	Kocaelispor	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.3	3
11	Genclerbirligi	3	1	0	2	-8	-5.0	3
12	Goztep	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.3	2
13	Trabzonspor	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.0	1
14	Amedspor	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.6	1
15	Konyaspor	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.7	1
16	Erzurumspor	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.0	1
17	Eyüpspor	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Buyuksehyr	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.