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Eredivisie
Referee: Sander van der Eijk
AZ Alkmaar
S S S U T
1–0
Full-time
Telstar
T T U T U
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Telstar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,7
Scored
2,5
0,8
Conceded
1,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,8
2,7
Scored
2,8
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%
17 Shots 3
8 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
5 Corners 2
0 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 3. · Telstar 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Feyenoord 7 5 2 0 +18 +7.8 17
2 PSV Eindhoven 6 5 1 0 +15 +9.1 16
3 AZ Alkmaar 6 5 1 0 +11 +7.1 16
4 Ajax 7 4 2 1 +12 +2.6 14
5 Twente 6 4 1 1 +7 +4.9 13
6 For Sittard 7 4 1 2 -1 -6.5 13
7 Excelsior 7 3 2 2 +6 +2.4 11
8 Groningen 7 3 2 2 +2 -1.9 11
9 Go Ahead Eagles 6 2 3 1 +2 -1.2 9
10 Heerenveen 7 2 3 2 +2 -2.6 9
11 Nijmegen 6 2 1 3 -1 +1.5 7
12 Telstar 6 1 2 3 -6 -1.5 5
13 Sparta Rotterdam 7 1 2 4 -7 -1.9 5
14 Cambuur 7 1 2 4 -9 -6.1 5
15 Utrecht 7 1 2 4 -13 -3.0 5
16 Zwolle 7 1 1 5 -14 -1.6 4
17 Den Haag 7 0 2 5 -10 -6.2 2
18 Willem II 7 0 2 5 -14 -2.9 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Telstar
1–0 Mexx Meerdink
Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
19′
41′
🟨 Gerald Alders
Kees Smit 🔁
↦ Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
45′
45′
🔁 Rojendro Oudsten
↦ Gerald Alders
Half-time 1–0
Kees Smit ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
57′
63′
🔁 Emirhan Demircan
↦ Jeff Hardeveld
Ayoub Oufkir 🔁
↦ Ro Zangelo Daal
71′
Weslley Pinto Batista 🔁
↦ Calvin Stengs
71′
Jizz Hornkamp 🔁
↦ Mexx Meerdink
71′
74′
🔁 Ar'jany Martha
↦ Jelani Seedorf
83′
🔁 Prince Aning
↦ Rui Mendes
Wouter Goes 🟨
88′
Seiya Maikuma 🔁
↦ Elijah Dijkstra
89′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
28 J. De Busser G
22 E. Dijkstra D
3 W. Goes D
4 L. Schouten D
5 M. Chávez D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
21 D. Kwakman M
14 C. Stengs M
17 V. Byskov M
11 R. Daal M
9 M. Meerdink F
Bench (12)
29 W. Hoedt
8 J. Clasie
19 J. Hornkamp
18 B. Kovacs
2 S. Maikuma
20 A. Natali
24 A. Oufkir
1 R. Owusu-Oduro
7 Weslley Patati
10 K. Smit
12 H. Verhulst
34 M. de Wit

Coach: L. Echteld

Telstar

3-4-2-1
1 R. Koeman G
16 S. Valk D
4 A. Soualhia D
43 M. Peersman D
3 Gerald Alders M
10 T. Owusu M
17 N. Rossen M
2 J. Hardeveld M
7 Rui Mendes M
27 P. Brouwer M
9 Jelani Seedorf F
Bench (12)
18 G. Caschili
8 E. Demircan
14 H. Kuster
42 A. Martha
13 Finn Mulder
28 R. Oudsten
20 D. Reiziger
23 N. Shenkman
21 F. Turay
6 Isaiah Ahmed
15 N. Nwankwo
5 P. Aning

Coach: H. Brugge

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,23
U
6,50
B
10,50
Over/under goals
O1,5
1,06
U1,5 ✓
8,00
O2,5
1,29
U2,5 ✓
3,50
O3,5
1,74
U3,5 ✓
2,10
Both teams to score
BLS ja
1,61
BLS nei ✓
2,20

Referee

Sander van der Eijk · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.