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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Fiorentina

T T T S S

1–1

Full-time

Napoli

S T T T S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,94 xG 1,45

42% Possession 58%

17 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 16. · Napoli 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	5	4	1	0	+11	+5.8	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.9	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+5	+1.7	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	+3	-2.8	12
5	Como	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.0	10
6	Milan	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
7	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+3	-2.6	7
8	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+2	+3.2	7
9	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.4	7
10	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.0	6
11	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.6	6
12	Lecce	4	2	0	2	-2	-4.8	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.5	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.3	4
15	Monza	5	1	1	3	-4	+2.5	4
16	Fiorentina	4	1	0	3	-6	+0.9	3
17	Bologna	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.2	2
18	Parma	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.5	1
19	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-6	-1.5	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	-9	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.0	9
2	Roma	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.0	7
3	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.5	6
4	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
5	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.3	4
6	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.2	4
7	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
8	Como	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
9	Monza	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
10	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.8	3
11	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
12	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
13	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-3	-4.3	3
14	Bologna	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
15	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
16	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.5	1
17	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-5	-0.3	1
18	Torino	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
19	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
20	Venezia	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	3	3	0	0	+4	-0.4	9
2	Cagliari	3	3	0	0	+3	-0.8	9
3	Como	3	2	1	0	+4	-1.0	7
4	Roma	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.8	6
5	Milan	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.1	5
6	Frosinone	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.9	4
7	Inter	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.9	4
8	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
10	Lecce	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
11	Juventus	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
12	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.9	3
13	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.1	3
14	Sassuolo	3	0	1	2	-2	+2.0	1
15	Monza	3	0	1	2	-4	+1.9	1
16	Atalanta	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
17	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
18	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
19	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
20	Parma	2	0	0	2	-3	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.