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La Liga

Referee: César Soto

Real Madrid

S S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,3

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 66%

68%

64%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

64%

36%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

41%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,69 xG 1,54

60% Possession 40%

23 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Ath Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	22	15	4	3	+29	+24.0	49
2	Ath Madrid	22	14	6	2	+23	+19.7	48
3	Barcelona	22	14	3	5	+36	+26.5	45
4	Ath Bilbao	23	12	8	3	+16	+14.1	44
5	Villarreal	23	11	7	5	+12	+15.4	40
6	Vallecano	23	9	8	6	+3	+2.0	35
7	Girona	23	9	4	10	-2	-0.4	31
8	Osasuna	22	7	9	6	-4	-7.5	30
9	Mallorca	22	9	3	10	-9	-1.8	30
10	Betis	23	7	8	8	-4	+2.3	29
11	Sociedad	22	8	4	10	-1	+2.9	28
12	Celta	23	8	4	11	-3	+5.3	28
13	Sevilla	22	7	7	8	-6	-3.4	28
14	Getafe	22	5	9	8	+0	-4.2	24
15	Las Palmas	23	6	5	12	-10	-21.4	23
16	Leganes	22	5	8	9	-11	-20.7	23
17	Espanol	22	6	5	11	-12	-17.4	23
18	Alaves	22	5	6	11	-9	-3.5	21
19	Valencia	22	4	7	11	-15	-10.1	19
20	Valladolid	23	4	3	16	-33	-22.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	12	9	3	0	+16	+18.3	30
2	Real Madrid	10	9	0	1	+18	+17.0	27
3	Ath Bilbao	12	7	4	1	+12	+9.2	25
4	Celta	12	7	2	3	+8	+5.3	23
5	Osasuna	12	6	4	2	+5	+1.4	22
6	Barcelona	10	7	0	3	+19	+19.1	21
7	Espanol	12	6	3	3	+3	-4.4	21
8	Villarreal	11	5	4	2	+9	+8.0	19
9	Girona	11	6	1	4	+5	+7.0	19
10	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+2	+6.4	18
11	Sevilla	11	5	3	3	+0	+2.0	18
12	Betis	11	4	5	2	+2	+9.7	17
13	Getafe	12	3	7	2	+3	+3.0	16
14	Valencia	11	4	3	4	+2	+0.3	15
15	Mallorca	11	4	3	4	-3	-2.5	15
16	Sociedad	11	4	2	5	-2	+2.8	14
17	Alaves	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.3	13
18	Las Palmas	12	3	4	5	-2	-5.6	13
19	Leganes	11	4	1	6	-7	-7.8	13
20	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	7	3	2	+17	+7.4	24
2	Real Madrid	12	6	4	2	+11	+7.0	22
3	Villarreal	12	6	3	3	+3	+7.4	21
4	Ath Bilbao	11	5	4	2	+4	+4.9	19
5	Ath Madrid	10	5	3	2	+7	+1.4	18
6	Vallecano	12	4	5	3	+1	-4.4	17
7	Mallorca	11	5	0	6	-6	+0.8	15
8	Sociedad	11	4	2	5	+1	+0.2	14
9	Betis	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.4	12
10	Girona	12	3	3	6	-7	-7.4	12
11	Leganes	11	1	7	3	-4	-12.8	10
12	Sevilla	11	2	4	5	-6	-5.4	10
13	Las Palmas	11	3	1	7	-8	-15.8	10
14	Getafe	10	2	2	6	-3	-7.2	8
15	Alaves	12	2	2	8	-8	-3.1	8
16	Osasuna	10	1	5	4	-9	-8.9	8
17	Celta	11	1	2	8	-11	-0.0	5
18	Valencia	11	0	4	7	-17	-10.4	4
19	Valladolid	12	1	0	11	-25	-14.6	3
20	Espanol	10	0	2	8	-15	-13.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.