We have analysed tens of thousands of matches from the leagues we cover — Norway, England, Germany, Spain, Italy, France and more — against the bookmakers' closing odds. Here are the patterns that actually exist, and the ones that only look like patterns.
If you had bet on every single team in every single match, grouped by odds, the loss would look like this. Bookmakers price big favourites almost fairly — but charge very well for the dream of an upset. This is called the favourite–longshot bias, and it is one of the most robust findings in betting research.
💡 The practical rule: never bet on high odds because “there is so much to win”. That is exactly where the margin against you is largest.
The table shows what you would historically have made or lost betting on each team in every match. The differences look large — but when we adjusted for the odds levels the teams typically play at and tested whether the pattern persists over time, almost all of it disappeared. Teams that “beat the market” in one period mostly did not in the next. Read the table as history, not as a recipe.
| Team | Matches | ROI all matches | As favourite | As underdog |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby Sweden | 206 | +20.2% | +7.9% | +31.4% |
| Aston Villa ENG | 274 | +19.4% | +3.1% | +36.1% |
| Elversberg GER | 109 | +12.9% | -1.7% | +31.5% |
| Lazio Italy | 275 | +12.6% | +8.4% | +21.9% |
| Burgos Spain | 221 | +11.8% | +14.1% | +10.1% |
| St. Gilloise Belgium | 167 | +11.8% | +9.1% | – |
| Augsburg GER | 245 | +11.0% | +0.2% | +14.7% |
| Lens France | 252 | +10.7% | +4.3% | +30.2% |
| Hartberg Austria | 239 | +10.4% | -7.3% | +17.2% |
| Viking NOR | 324 | +10.3% | +1.8% | +22.5% |
The strategy “bet home win whenever the home odds are below 1.50” follows directly from finding no. 1 — short favourites are the least mispriced. This is how it has performed:
| Bet | Hits | ROI average price | ROI best price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totalt | 824 | 73% | -4.1% | -1.2% |
| Premier League | 53 | 68% | -9.5% | -7.2% |
| Eliteserien | 46 | 85% | +8.7% | +12.3% |
| Championship | 44 | 59% | -20.3% | -18.2% |
| Bundesliga | 56 | 77% | +0.8% | +3.8% |
| La Liga | 51 | 86% | +9.7% | +12.7% |
| Serie A | 58 | 71% | -6.7% | -4.3% |
| Ligue 1 | 43 | 74% | -0.3% | +2.3% |
| Eredivisie | 68 | 63% | -17.9% | -15.3% |
| Primeira Liga | 58 | 79% | -3.1% | -0.3% |
| Pro League | 34 | 74% | -1.7% | +1.7% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 14 | 36% | -49.6% | -47.8% |
| Ligue 2 | 12 | 75% | +1.7% | +5.3% |
| Serie B | 23 | 87% | +20.6% | +24.6% |
| LaLiga2 | 32 | 69% | -3.2% | -0.0% |
| Superligaen | 23 | 61% | -18.6% | -16.0% |
| Allsvenskan | 41 | 71% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| Ekstraklasa | 15 | 60% | -17.1% | -13.7% |
| Süper Lig | 44 | 73% | -6.3% | -3.5% |
| Super League | 70 | 79% | +2.2% | +5.6% |
| Premiership | 39 | 82% | +5.4% | +8.1% |
| Bet | Hits | ROI average price | ROI best price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totalt | 6086 | 76% | -1.0% | +2.4% |
| Premier League | 453 | 74% | -4.6% | -1.8% |
| Eliteserien | 453 | 75% | -0.2% | +3.7% |
| Championship | 234 | 71% | -2.5% | +0.7% |
| Bundesliga | 543 | 75% | -3.7% | -0.1% |
| La Liga | 408 | 80% | +5.4% | +8.9% |
| Serie A | 446 | 73% | -3.9% | -0.6% |
| Ligue 1 | 340 | 74% | -1.9% | +1.3% |
| Eredivisie | 488 | 76% | -3.5% | -0.5% |
| Primeira Liga | 398 | 81% | +0.1% | +3.3% |
| Pro League | 292 | 75% | -0.2% | +3.4% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 104 | 69% | -3.9% | +0.1% |
| Ligue 2 | 99 | 79% | +8.8% | +13.5% |
| Serie B | 89 | 80% | +11.9% | +15.9% |
| LaLiga2 | 114 | 73% | +1.8% | +5.3% |
| Superligaen | 131 | 64% | -13.4% | -10.6% |
| Allsvenskan | 271 | 73% | -2.1% | +1.3% |
| Ekstraklasa | 151 | 74% | +0.5% | +4.5% |
| Süper Lig | 306 | 77% | +1.3% | +5.3% |
| Super League | 502 | 77% | -0.0% | +3.6% |
| Premiership | 264 | 84% | +2.4% | +5.5% |
An honest read: last year was a good year, not the norm — over the full history this is roughly break-even. But Norwegian home favourites at the best price is the only corner of the market we have found that stays in the plus over many hundreds of matches. Two lessons remain: always compare odds across several bookmakers, and never expect more than small margins.
What you would have made betting on the team in its last five matches. This is a snapshot, not a prediction — the spread from top to bottom is exactly what randomness produces over five matches (see finding no. 2), and form is already priced into the next match's odds.
| Team | Last 5 (oldest first) | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Academico Viseu Portugal |
V
V
V
V
V
|
+327% |
| Kalamata Greece |
V
T
V
V
T
|
+217% |
| OFI Crete Greece |
V
U
T
T
V
|
+215% |
| Valerenga NOR |
T
U
T
V
V
|
+204% |
| Plymouth ENG |
V
T
V
V
T
|
+202% |
| Bolton ENG |
V
T
V
U
T
|
+192% |
| AVS Portugal |
U
U
V
V
U
|
+190% |
| Ruch Chorzow Poland |
V
V
V
T
V
|
+182% |
| Hamburg GER |
T
V
V
V
T
|
+170% |
| Westerlo Belgium |
V
V
V
V
U
|
+152% |
Because honesty is the whole point of this service. We have backtested our own model and a range of popular strategies against the market — and publish the results openly on the results page. The conclusion so far is clear: the closing odds are very hard to beat, and anyone promising you otherwise is selling dreams. Use our analyses to understand the matches better — and always gamble responsibly.