The entire results base in one view: monthly progression, market by market, confidence bands and league filters. Computed on the model’s simulated history against actual results and closing odds — last 12 months.
Market
Model confidence in the favoured outcome
Group the table by
Leagues in the calculation — click to exclude
Excluded leagues are removed from all figures, the chart and the table. Your choice is remembered in the browser. Yellow dot = the model is uncertain in this league (clearly behind the market). Grey dot = thin or missing odds base.
Progression month by month
Rows under 50 matches are marked “thin” — a single surprise moves them a lot. The market and gap columns are computed only on matches with closing odds for the market. ROI = a flat 1-unit stake on the model’s favoured outcome at the market’s closing odds — shown because it is honest, not because it is a strategy. Odds-based figures (ROI, market, gap) in grey are built on fewer than 30 matches with odds — read them as noise.
Every value tip we publish is locked with a timestamp before kick-off and cannot be changed afterwards. Here you can see how it has actually gone — including when it goes badly.
43 settled recommendations, 14 hits (33 %). A flat stake of 1 unit per bet would have returned -8.0 %.