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La Liga

Referee: J Munuera

Real Madrid

T S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

2,2

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 68%

75%

61%

Points per game

2,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

61%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

54%

46%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,7

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,41 xG 1,00

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

2 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	24	1	4	+50	+36.4	73
2	Real Madrid	28	21	3	4	+36	+31.1	66
3	Villarreal	29	18	4	7	+20	+9.8	58
4	Ath Madrid	28	17	6	5	+22	+13.7	57
5	Betis	29	11	11	7	+7	+9.7	44
6	Celta	29	10	11	8	+6	+4.1	41
7	Sociedad	29	10	8	11	-1	-3.5	38
8	Getafe	29	11	5	13	-6	-9.0	38
9	Ath Bilbao	29	11	5	13	-9	+10.4	38
10	Osasuna	29	10	7	12	-1	-4.2	37
11	Espanol	29	10	7	12	-8	-1.4	37
12	Valencia	29	9	8	12	-10	+1.8	35
13	Girona	29	8	10	11	-13	-9.5	34
14	Vallecano	29	7	11	11	-7	+2.4	32
15	Alaves	29	8	7	14	-11	-5.0	31
16	Sevilla	29	8	7	14	-12	-18.2	31
17	Elche	29	6	11	12	-8	-17.8	29
18	Mallorca	29	7	7	15	-13	-17.3	28
19	Levante	29	6	8	15	-14	-13.1	26
20	Oviedo	29	4	9	16	-28	-20.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	15	0	0	+39	+24.9	45
2	Ath Madrid	15	13	1	1	+22	+18.1	40
3	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
4	Real Madrid	14	12	0	2	+23	+20.1	36
5	Osasuna	14	8	4	2	+9	+6.1	28
6	Ath Bilbao	15	8	2	5	+2	+11.5	26
7	Betis	14	7	4	3	+10	+8.2	25
8	Elche	15	6	7	2	+8	-1.9	25
9	Sociedad	14	7	3	4	+6	+3.2	24
10	Valencia	14	6	5	3	+4	+10.8	23
11	Mallorca	14	6	4	4	+3	+0.5	22
12	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
13	Vallecano	14	4	8	2	+5	+9.2	20
14	Alaves	14	5	5	4	+1	+0.8	20
15	Girona	14	5	4	5	-5	-7.0	19
16	Getafe	14	5	3	6	+1	-3.9	18
17	Celta	15	4	5	6	+2	+5.5	17
18	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-3	-4.9	16
19	Levante	15	3	5	7	-8	-6.5	14
20	Oviedo	14	3	5	6	-8	-9.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	9	3	2	+13	+11.0	30
2	Barcelona	14	9	1	4	+11	+11.4	28
3	Celta	14	6	6	2	+4	-1.5	24
4	Villarreal	14	6	3	5	-1	+0.2	21
5	Getafe	15	6	2	7	-7	-5.1	20
6	Betis	15	4	7	4	-3	+1.4	19
7	Ath Madrid	13	4	5	4	+0	-4.4	17
8	Espanol	14	4	4	6	-5	-2.6	16
9	Girona	15	3	6	6	-8	-2.6	15
10	Sevilla	14	4	3	7	-9	-13.3	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.7	14
12	Levante	14	3	3	8	-6	-6.5	12
13	Ath Bilbao	14	3	3	8	-11	-1.1	12
14	Vallecano	15	3	3	9	-12	-6.8	12
15	Valencia	15	3	3	9	-14	-9.0	12
16	Alaves	15	3	2	10	-12	-5.8	11
17	Osasuna	15	2	3	10	-10	-10.3	9
18	Oviedo	15	1	4	10	-20	-11.3	7
19	Mallorca	15	1	3	11	-16	-17.8	6
20	Elche	14	0	4	10	-16	-15.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.