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Champions League
Referee: Davide Massa
Liverpool
T U U U S
2–1
Full-time
Ath Madrid
T S U S T
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,3
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,62 xG 0,91
45% Possession 55%
14 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 5
3 Offside 5
11 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

17. Sep -25 Liverpool – Ath Madrid 3–2

Match report

Liverpool Ath Madrid
17′
⚽ Marcos Llorente 0–1
Julián Álvarez
Alexis Mac Allister 🟨
28′
1–1 Dominik Szoboszlai ⚽
Ronald Araujo
40′
Half-time 2–1
2–1 Alexis Mac Allister ⚽
Alexander Isak
50′
51′
🟨 Marc Pubill
59′
🔁 Alejandro Grimaldo
↦ Lee Kang-In
59′
🔁 Ademola Lookman
↦ Koke
Jeremie Frimpong 🔁
↦ Rio Ngumoha
60′
Víctor Muñoz 🔁
↦ Bradley Barcola
60′
Ryan Gravenberch 🔁
↦ Alexis Mac Allister
69′
73′
🔁 Jonathan David
↦ Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
77′
🔁 Robin Le Normand
↦ Cristian Romero
77′
🔁 Morten Hjulmand
↦ Pablo Barrios Rivas
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-2-3-1
1 Alisson Becker G
33 R. Araújo D
5 J. Jacquet D
4 V. van Dijk D
6 M. Kerkez D
8 D. Szoboszlai M
10 A. Mac Allister M
73 R. Ngumoha M
7 F. Wirtz M
29 B. Barcola M
9 A. Isak F
Bench (11)
44 L. Chambers
76 J. Danns
30 J. Frimpong
38 R. Gravenberch
67 L. Koumas
25 G. Mamardashvili
53 J. McConnell
23 Víctor Muñoz
42 T. Nyoni
21 K. Tsimikas
28 F. Woodman

Coach: Andoni Iraola

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
21 C. Romero D
18 Marc Pubill D
17 D. Hancko D
20 G. Simeone M
8 Pablo Barrios M
6 Koke M
10 Álex Baena M
7 Lee Kang-In F
19 J. Álvarez F
Bench (12)
3 O. Vargas
1 J. Musso
4 Rodrigo Mendoza
11 A. Lookman
24 Robin Le Normand
23 M. Hjulmand
22 Álex Grimaldo
27 J. Dominguez
15 J. David
5 J. Cardoso
46 J. Castillo
30 Dani Martínez

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,75
🔒
U
4,00
🔒
B
4,50
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,17
🔒
U1,5
5,00
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,53
🔒
U2,5
2,45
🔒
O3,5
2,37
🔒
U3,5 ✓
1,60
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,53
🔒
BLS nei
2,40
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Davide Massa · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.