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Eredivisie

Referee: Jannick van der Laan

Ajax

S S T S S

2–2

Full-time

Excelsior

T S S U T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

5,7

3,3

Scored

4,0

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,3

Scored

3,2

2,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

81% Possession 19%

33 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 0

3 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 4. · Excelsior 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	1	0	+15	+9.1	16
2	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	+11	+7.1	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	+13	+7.8	14
4	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+12	+2.6	13
5	Twente	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.9	13
6	Groningen	7	3	2	2	+2	-1.9	11
7	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	+6	+2.4	10
8	For Sittard	6	3	1	2	-2	-6.5	10
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	+2	-1.2	9
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	+2	-2.6	9
11	Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	-1	+1.5	7
12	Telstar	6	1	2	3	-6	-1.5	5
13	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	-7	-1.9	5
14	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	-8	-3.0	5
15	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	-9	-6.1	5
16	Zwolle	7	1	1	5	-14	-1.6	4
17	Den Haag	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.2	2
18	Willem II	6	0	2	4	-13	-2.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Twente	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.4	9
2	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	1	0	+7	+4.6	7
3	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.4	7
4	Go Ahead Eagles	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.9	7
5	Groningen	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.8	7
6	Ajax	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.6	4
7	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.7	4
8	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.4	3
9	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.5	3
10	Cambuur	4	1	0	3	-7	-5.6	3
11	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
12	Sparta Rotterdam	4	0	2	2	-5	-2.7	2
13	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.0	1
14	Den Haag	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.3	1
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.9	1
16	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
17	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.9	1
18	Zwolle	3	0	0	3	-11	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+13	+4.2	12
2	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+10	+2.0	9
3	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.5	9
4	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.7	9
5	Excelsior	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.8	7
6	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
7	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.5	6
8	Heerenveen	3	1	2	0	+4	-1.0	5
9	Twente	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.5	4
10	Utrecht	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.9	4
11	Telstar	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.5	4
12	Groningen	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.1	4
13	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.7	4
14	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.9	3
15	Cambuur	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.5	2
16	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.1	2
17	Den Haag	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.0	1
18	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-7	-0.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.