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Premier League

Referee: Darren England

Brighton

S T U S S

3–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S S S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,5

2,7

Scored

3,3

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

4,5

2,3

Scored

3,3

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

40% Possession 60%

17 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 6. · Arsenal 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.4	12
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	+6	+3.1	12
3	Brentford	5	2	3	0	+6	+3.5	9
4	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.8	8
5	Hull	4	2	2	0	+3	-1.4	8
6	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+8	+2.0	7
7	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	-2	+2.4	7
8	Liverpool	4	1	3	0	+2	+0.9	6
9	Everton	4	1	3	0	+2	-1.2	6
10	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	-3	-1.4	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
12	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.0	5
13	Man United	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.4	4
14	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
15	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
16	Bournemouth	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.3	3
17	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
18	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	-6	-2.9	2
19	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-3	-2.0	1
20	Coventry	4	0	0	4	-10	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
4	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.5	4
5	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.0	4
6	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
7	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
8	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
9	Man United	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
10	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
11	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
12	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.4	2
13	Bournemouth	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
14	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
15	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
16	Tottenham	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
17	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.9	0
18	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
20	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-6	+0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.5	6
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.7	6
3	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
4	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
5	Hull	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
6	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
7	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.5	4
8	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.5	3
9	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.5	3
12	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.9	3
13	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Everton	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
15	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
16	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
17	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
18	Man United	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
19	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.3	1
20	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.