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Ligue 1

Referee: Geoffrey Kubler

Le Mans

S U T U U

2–1

Full-time

Lorient

T U T S U

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Mans Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

11 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Le Mans 14. · Lorient 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+5	+1.1	13
2	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.0	11
3	Lille	4	3	1	0	+5	-0.9	10
4	Rennes	4	3	1	0	+3	-1.2	10
5	Lyon	4	2	2	0	+4	-1.0	8
6	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.8	7
7	Brest	4	1	2	1	+0	+4.0	5
8	Paris SG	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.4	5
9	Lorient	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.7	5
10	Lens	5	1	1	3	+0	+3.7	4
11	Angers	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.5	4
12	Troyes	4	1	1	2	-5	-0.4	4
13	Marseille	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.4	3
14	Le Mans	4	0	3	1	-1	-2.1	3
15	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-6	-2.3	3
16	Le Havre	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.8	2
17	Toulouse	4	0	2	2	-3	+0.2	2
18	Nice	4	0	2	2	-4	-1.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris FC	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.6	7
2	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.2	7
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
4	Lyon	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
5	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.2	4
6	Strasbourg	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.1	4
7	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+3	+1.7	3
8	Lens	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.6	3
9	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
10	Le Mans	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
11	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
12	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
13	Brest	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.0	1
14	Le Havre	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
15	Troyes	2	0	1	1	-4	-1.4	1
16	Paris SG	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
17	Angers	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.8	0
18	Toulouse	2	0	0	2	-3	+2.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.8	7
2	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.8	6
3	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.4	5
4	Angers	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
5	Lyon	2	1	1	0	+2	-2.1	4
6	Brest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.1	4
7	Paris FC	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
8	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
9	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
10	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.7	3
11	Troyes	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.0	3
12	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
13	Le Havre	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
14	Le Mans	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
15	Lens	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.1	1
16	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.3	0
17	Nice	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.6	0
18	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.