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Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Burnley

T U T U T

1–1

Full-time

Derby

T S T T T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 7%

14%

Points per game

0,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

Both score Ø 72%

100%

43%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

2,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

6 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 24. · Derby 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	8	4	3	1	+11	+1.2	15
2	Southampton	7	4	2	1	+10	+3.3	14
3	Swansea	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.2	14
4	Middlesbrough	7	4	2	1	+4	+3.2	14
5	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+3	-2.8	14
6	Stoke	8	4	1	3	+1	-3.8	13
7	Bristol City	8	4	1	3	-1	-3.2	13
8	QPR	7	3	3	1	+3	+2.6	12
9	Charlton	8	3	3	2	-3	-5.0	12
10	Wolves	6	3	2	1	+4	+4.5	11
11	Millwall	8	3	2	3	+0	+2.5	11
12	Lincoln	7	3	2	2	+0	-0.6	11
13	Birmingham	7	2	4	1	+1	+1.3	10
14	Norwich	7	3	0	4	+0	-0.3	9
15	Sheffield United	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.7	9
16	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	+0	-2.1	8
17	Watford	8	2	2	4	-3	-2.6	8
18	Portsmouth	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.2	7
19	Cardiff	8	1	4	3	-2	+3.0	7
20	Wrexham	7	1	4	2	-4	+1.4	7
21	Bolton	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.7	7
22	Derby	7	1	1	5	-7	-1.7	4
23	Preston	7	1	0	6	-7	+2.0	3
24	Burnley	7	0	3	4	-8	-0.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	4	4	0	0	+11	+3.9	12
2	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.7	10
3	West Ham	4	3	0	1	+10	+2.2	9
4	Stoke	4	3	0	1	+5	+1.6	9
5	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+4	-0.9	8
6	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.4	8
7	Charlton	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.2	8
8	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+4	+1.7	7
9	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.4	7
10	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.4	6
11	Cardiff	4	1	3	0	+2	+2.6	6
12	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.2	6
13	Bolton	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.1	6
14	Bristol City	4	2	0	2	-1	-2.6	6
15	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
16	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
17	Sheffield United	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.5	4
18	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
19	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
20	Preston	4	1	0	3	-4	+0.2	3
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Wrexham	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
23	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
24	Derby	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lincoln	4	3	0	1	+2	-3.2	9
2	QPR	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.9	8
3	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.4	7
4	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.3	7
5	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.6	7
6	Swansea	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
7	West Ham	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.0	6
8	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+0	-3.2	6
9	Sheffield United	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
10	Wrexham	4	1	2	1	-3	+0.5	5
11	Portsmouth	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.3	4
12	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
13	Millwall	4	1	1	2	-4	+0.8	4
14	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-4	-5.4	4
15	Charlton	4	1	1	2	-5	-3.8	4
16	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
17	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.7	3
18	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
19	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
20	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.4	1
21	Watford	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.3	1
22	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
23	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.2	1
24	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	+1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.