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Premier League

Referee: Jarred Gillett

Nott'm Forest

T T U U S

0–1

Full-time

Coventry

S T T T T

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Coventry

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

1,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

24 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 3

12 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 12. · Coventry 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+6	+3.1	12
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+11	+2.0	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	+6	+3.5	9
5	Everton	5	2	3	0	+3	-1.2	9
6	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.8	8
7	Hull	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.4	8
8	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	+0	-3.0	8
9	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	-2	+2.4	7
10	Liverpool	4	1	3	0	+2	+0.9	6
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	-4	-1.4	6
12	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
13	Man United	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.4	4
14	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
15	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
16	Bournemouth	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.3	3
17	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
18	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	-6	-2.9	2
19	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-3	-2.0	1
20	Coventry	4	0	0	4	-10	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.5	7
2	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
3	Everton	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.8	7
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.7	6
5	Man City	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
6	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.4	5
7	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.0	4
8	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.8	4
9	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
10	Man United	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.5	3
11	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
12	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.1	3
13	Bournemouth	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
14	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
15	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
16	Tottenham	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
17	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.9	0
18	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
20	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-6	+0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.5	6
2	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.7	6
3	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
4	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
5	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
6	Hull	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
7	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.5	4
8	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.5	3
9	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Ipswich	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.5	3
12	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.9	3
13	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
14	Everton	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
15	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
16	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
17	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
18	Man United	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
19	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.3	1
20	Coventry	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.