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Eredivisie

Referee: Sander van der Eijk

Excelsior

S T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Utrecht

T T U T U

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Utrecht

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,7

4,8

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

3,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

2,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 80%

60%

100%

Average goals

3,4

5,4

Scored

2,4

1,8

Conceded

1,0

3,6

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 6. · Utrecht 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	+11	+7.1	16
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+12	+9.1	13
3	Twente	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.9	13
4	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+8	+2.6	10
6	Excelsior	5	3	1	1	+7	+2.4	10
7	For Sittard	6	3	1	2	-2	-6.5	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	+2	-1.2	9
9	Groningen	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.9	8
10	Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	-1	+1.5	7
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	-2	-2.6	5
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.6	4
14	Telstar	5	1	1	3	-6	-1.5	4
15	Cambuur	6	1	1	4	-9	-6.1	4
16	Utrecht	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.0	2
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	-9	-2.9	2
18	Den Haag	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Twente	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.4	9
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.4	7
3	Go Ahead Eagles	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.9	7
4	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.6	4
5	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
6	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
7	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
8	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.5	3
9	Cambuur	4	1	0	3	-7	-5.6	3
10	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
11	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
12	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
13	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.0	1
14	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.9	1
15	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
16	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.9	1
17	Den Haag	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.3	0
18	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+10	+2.0	9
2	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.5	9
3	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.7	9
4	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.2	9
5	Excelsior	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.8	7
6	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
7	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.5	6
8	Twente	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.5	4
9	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
10	Groningen	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.1	4
11	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
12	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
13	Heerenveen	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.0	2
14	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.1	2
15	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
16	Cambuur	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
17	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.9	1
18	Den Haag	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.