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Eredivisie

Referee: I Oostrom

Excelsior

S T T S T

1–4

Full-time

Ajax

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

61%

Both score Ø 61%

50%

72%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,1

2,6

Conceded

2,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

21% Possession 79%

12 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 14. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	19	12	6	1	+27	42
2	AZ Alkmaar	19	12	4	3	+16	40
3	PSV Eindhoven	19	12	2	5	+24	38
4	Twente	17	10	5	2	+20	35
5	Ajax	18	9	7	2	+27	34
6	Sparta Rotterdam	17	9	5	3	+15	32
7	Utrecht	18	7	6	5	-1	27
8	Heerenveen	18	6	6	6	-2	24
9	Nijmegen	19	4	11	4	+3	23
10	Waalwijk	18	5	7	6	-2	22
11	Go Ahead Eagles	18	4	7	7	-6	19
12	For Sittard	18	5	4	9	-9	19
13	Vitesse	19	4	7	8	-12	19
14	Excelsior	18	6	1	11	-20	19
15	FC Emmen	19	3	6	10	-19	15
16	Volendam	18	3	4	11	-24	13
17	Cambuur	18	3	3	12	-18	12
18	Groningen	18	3	3	12	-19	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Twente	10	8	2	0	+21	26
2	PSV Eindhoven	10	8	1	1	+21	25
3	Feyenoord	9	6	3	0	+16	21
4	Sparta Rotterdam	9	6	1	2	+10	19
5	Ajax	9	4	4	1	+19	16
6	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	4	1	+4	16
7	Waalwijk	9	4	3	2	+7	15
8	Excelsior	8	5	0	3	+0	15
9	Nijmegen	10	2	7	1	+6	13
10	Utrecht	8	3	3	2	+0	12
11	FC Emmen	9	2	6	1	-1	12
12	Heerenveen	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	For Sittard	10	3	2	5	-3	11
14	Go Ahead Eagles	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Groningen	9	2	1	6	-7	7
16	Vitesse	9	1	4	4	-11	7
17	Volendam	8	2	0	6	-12	6
18	Cambuur	9	1	0	8	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	10	8	0	2	+12	24
2	Feyenoord	10	6	3	1	+11	21
3	Ajax	9	5	3	1	+8	18
4	Utrecht	10	4	3	3	-1	15
5	Sparta Rotterdam	8	3	4	1	+5	13
6	PSV Eindhoven	9	4	1	4	+3	13
7	Heerenveen	9	3	4	2	+0	13
8	Vitesse	10	3	3	4	-1	12
9	Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-3	10
10	Twente	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	3	3	-2	9
12	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	-6	9
13	For Sittard	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Waalwijk	9	1	4	4	-9	7
15	Volendam	10	1	4	5	-12	7
16	Groningen	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Excelsior	10	1	1	8	-20	4
18	FC Emmen	10	1	0	9	-18	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.