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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Excelsior

S U S S T

2–1

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,0

Scored

2,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,32 xG 1,03

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

13 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 10. · Sparta Rotterdam 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+7	+6.8	9
2	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	1	0	+5	+6.3	7
3	Go Ahead Eagles	3	2	1	0	+5	-0.4	7
4	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+4	+5.6	7
5	For Sittard	4	2	1	1	+1	-6.5	7
6	Groningen	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.1	6
7	Ajax	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
8	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.6	4
9	Heerenveen	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.7	4
10	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.9	3
11	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.1	3
12	Twente	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.8	3
13	Telstar	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
14	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
15	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.3	1
16	Willem II	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
17	Den Haag	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0
18	Cambuur	3	0	0	3	-9	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.6	4
3	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
4	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
5	Groningen	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
6	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	-4.5	3
7	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
8	Ajax	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
9	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.7	1
11	Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
12	Excelsior	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.7	0
13	Telstar	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
14	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
15	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
16	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
17	Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
18	Cambuur	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.1	6
2	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.2	6
3	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.0	4
4	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.7	3
5	Nijmegen	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
6	Sparta Rotterdam	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
7	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
8	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
9	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.7	3
10	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
11	Groningen	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
12	Heerenveen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
13	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.4	1
14	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
15	Twente	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
16	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.6	0
17	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0
18	Den Haag	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.