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Eredivisie

Referee: Sander van der Eijk

Ajax

U U S S S

1–3

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

S U S S S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

4,7

5,2

Scored

3,2

4,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+2,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 3/4 matches

Win Ø 71%

67%

75%

Points per game

2,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,3

5,0

Scored

2,7

3,8

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

53% Possession 47%

19 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 4. · PSV Eindhoven 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+10	+7.5	12
2	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
3	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	1	0	+10	+9.1	10
4	Ajax	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.6	7
5	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.2	7
6	For Sittard	4	2	1	1	+1	-6.5	7
7	Twente	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.1	6
8	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.2	6
9	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.0	6
10	Groningen	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.1	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.9	5
12	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.1	5
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.6	4
14	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.6	3
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.1	1
16	Den Haag	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.2	1
17	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-9	-3.0	1
18	Cambuur	4	0	0	4	-12	-5.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
2	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.6	4
4	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
5	Groningen	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
6	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	-4.5	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
8	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
9	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
10	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
13	Nijmegen	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.5	0
14	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
15	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
16	Telstar	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.1	0
17	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-8	-3.9	0
18	Cambuur	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.2	9
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.5	6
3	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.0	6
4	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.5	6
5	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.1	6
6	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.0	4
7	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
8	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.7	3
9	Twente	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.7	3
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
11	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
12	Groningen	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
13	Heerenveen	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.0	2
14	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
16	Den Haag	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.0	1
17	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.6	0
18	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.