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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Fernandes Correia

Nacional

S T T T T

0–4

Full-time

Famalicao

T T U U U

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Famalicao 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+13	+5.4	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+17	+9.3	16
3	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+9	+4.3	14
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.3	10
6	Estrela	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.2	10
7	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.7	10
8	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.2	8
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.5	7
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-4	-1.1	7
11	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.7	7
12	Alverca	6	1	2	3	-3	-3.1	5
13	Famalicao	6	0	4	2	-2	-0.9	4
14	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	-3	+4.1	4
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.3	4
16	Rio Ave	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.1	4
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	-6	-4.0	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	-14	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.4	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.8	7
4	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.0	7
5	Arouca	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.5	6
7	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.5	5
9	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	+4.6	4
10	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-2.5	4
11	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.2	4
12	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
13	Academico Viseu	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.4	3
14	Alverca	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
15	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
16	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
17	Rio Ave	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.2	1
18	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-11	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+14	+5.3	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+2.0	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.7	7
4	Sp Lisbon	3	1	2	0	+4	+2.7	5
5	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
6	Academico Viseu	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.8	5
7	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	-4.0	4
9	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.3	3
10	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.7	3
11	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.9	3
12	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.2	3
13	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.1	2
14	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
15	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.2	1
16	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
17	Guimaraes	3	0	0	3	-3	-0.5	0
18	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.