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Primeira Liga

Referee: David Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Sp Lisbon

S S S S U

2–2

Full-time

Arouca

S T S U T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Arouca 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+13	+5.4	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+17	+9.3	16
3	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+9	+4.3	14
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.3	10
6	Estrela	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.2	10
7	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.7	10
8	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	+0	+2.5	8
9	Alverca	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.1	8
10	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-4	-1.1	8
12	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	+2	-0.9	7
13	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.7	7
14	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	-3	+4.1	4
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-8	-3.3	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	-10	-5.1	4
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	-6	-4.0	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	-14	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.4	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.8	7
4	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.0	7
5	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.5	7
6	Arouca	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
7	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
8	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.5	5
9	Alverca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.4	5
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	+4.6	4
11	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-2.5	4
12	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.2	4
13	Academico Viseu	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.4	3
14	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.1	3
15	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
16	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
17	Rio Ave	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.2	1
18	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-11	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+14	+5.3	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+2.0	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.7	7
4	Sp Lisbon	3	1	2	0	+4	+2.7	5
5	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+3	+0.1	5
6	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
7	Academico Viseu	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.8	5
8	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
9	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	-4.0	4
10	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.3	4
11	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.7	3
12	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.9	3
13	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.2	3
14	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
15	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.2	1
16	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
17	Guimaraes	3	0	0	3	-3	-0.5	0
18	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.