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Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Stieler
Stuttgart
S T S S T
0–1
Full-time
Dortmund
S S S S S
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
4,2
3,7
Scored
2,2
3,0
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,7
3,3
Scored
2,0
2,7
Conceded
2,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%
12 Shots 13
5 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 2
4 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stuttgart 14. · Dortmund 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 +12 +3.3 10
2 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 +9 +1.8 10
3 Dortmund 3 3 0 0 +6 +0.6 9
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 +5 +1.6 7
5 Mainz 4 2 1 1 +4 +0.5 7
6 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 +0 -1.8 7
7 RB Leipzig 3 2 0 1 +6 +2.9 6
8 Elversberg 3 2 0 1 +1 -0.6 6
9 Ein Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 -1 -0.4 5
10 Leverkusen 3 1 1 1 +3 +0.6 4
11 Schalke 04 3 1 1 1 -1 -1.6 4
12 FC Koln 4 1 1 2 -3 +0.1 4
13 Hoffenheim 3 1 0 2 -1 -0.1 3
14 Stuttgart 3 1 0 2 -2 -3.3 3
15 Hamburg 4 1 0 3 -11 -0.6 3
16 Paderborn 3 0 1 2 -4 -0.5 1
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 -13 +0.4 1
18 M'gladbach 4 0 0 4 -10 -2.9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stuttgart Dortmund
Ermedin Demirović 🟨
13′
Angelo Stiller 🟨
17′
32′
🟨 Nico Schlotterbeck
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 Joey Veerman
57′
🟨 Kouakou Joane Gadou
62′
🔁 Jobe Bellingham
↦ Joey Veerman
62′
🔁 Konstantinos Karetsas
↦ Ethan Nwaneri
Jamie Leweling 🔁
↦ Chris Führich
64′
Dženan Pejčinović 🔁
↦ Deniz Undav
64′
70′
Maximilian Beier 0–1
Jobe Bellingham
74′
🔁 Fábio Silva
↦ Serhou Guirassy
81′
🟨 Jobe Bellingham
82′
🟨 Julian Ryerson
82′
🔁 Marcel Sabitzer
↦ Maximilian Beier
82′
🔁 Ramy Bensebaini
↦ Julian Ryerson
Leo Sauer 🔁
↦ Bilal El Khannouss
84′
Nikolas Nartey 🔁
↦ Grischa Prömel
84′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Stuttgart

3-4-2-1
1 F. Bredlow G
29 Finn Jeltsch D
24 J. Chabot D
7 M. Mittelstädt D
4 J. Vagnoman M
21 G. Prömel M
6 A. Stiller M
10 C. Führich M
11 B. El Khannouss F
26 D. Undav F
9 E. Demirović F
Bench (9)
28 N. Nartey
17 D. Pejčinović
44 L. Sauer
2 A. Al Dakhil
33 M. Funk
3 R. Hendriks
47 Y. Spalt
16 A. Karazor
18 J. Leweling

Coach: S. Hoeneb

Dortmund

3-4-2-1
1 G. Kobel G
22 Kouakou Joane Gadou D
3 W. Anton D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
26 J. Ryerson M
25 J. Veerman M
8 F. Nmecha M
24 D. Svensson M
18 E. Nwaneri F
14 M. Beier F
9 S. Guirassy F
Bench (9)
17 C. Chukwuemeka
40 S. Inacio
19 K. Karetsas
33 A. Meyer
49 L. Reggiani
20 M. Sabitzer
21 Fábio Silva
7 J. Bellingham
5 R. Bensebaïni

Coach: N. Kovač

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,48
U
3,90
B ✓
2,71
Over/under goals
O1,5
1,08
U1,5 ✓
7,00
O2,5
1,36
U2,5 ✓
2,94
O3,5
1,91
U3,5 ✓
1,91
Both teams to score
BLS ja
1,32
BLS nei ✓
3,20

Referee

Tobias Stieler · 91 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.