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Bundesliga
Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck
Hamburg
U S T T T
2–1
Full-time
FC Koln
T S S T U
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg FC Koln
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
3,7
4,2
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
2,5
2,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
-1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
4,0
4,0
Scored
0,0
1,7
Conceded
4,0
2,3
Goal diff per game
-4,0
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 18
7 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 7
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hamburg 18. · FC Koln 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 +12 +3.3 10
2 Freiburg 3 3 0 0 +9 +1.8 9
3 Dortmund 3 3 0 0 +6 +0.6 9
4 Augsburg 3 2 1 0 +6 +1.6 7
5 RB Leipzig 3 2 0 1 +6 +2.9 6
6 Elversberg 3 2 0 1 +1 -0.6 6
7 Leverkusen 3 1 1 1 +3 +0.6 4
8 Mainz 3 1 1 1 +3 +0.5 4
9 Ein Frankfurt 3 1 1 1 -1 -0.4 4
10 Werder Bremen 3 1 1 1 -1 -1.8 4
11 Schalke 04 3 1 1 1 -1 -1.6 4
12 FC Koln 3 1 1 1 -2 +0.1 4
13 Hoffenheim 3 1 0 2 -1 -0.1 3
14 Stuttgart 3 1 0 2 -2 -3.3 3
15 Paderborn 3 0 1 2 -4 -0.5 1
16 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 -13 +0.4 1
17 M'gladbach 3 0 0 3 -9 -2.9 0
18 Hamburg 3 0 0 3 -12 -0.6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hamburg FC Koln
Albert Grönbaek 🟨
10′
1–0 Nicolás Capaldo
Albert Grönbaek
44′
Yussuf Poulsen 🔁
↦ Terem Moffi
45′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Yussuf Poulsen
Albert Grönbaek
49′
54′
🟨 Gideon Mensah
64′
🔁 Borna Sosa
↦ Gideon Mensah
64′
🔁 Ragnar Ache
↦ Thijs Dallinga
Patson Daka 🔁
↦ Albert Grönbaek
67′
67′
🔁 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
↦ Alessio Castro-Montes
Louis Pepe Lemke 🔁
↦ David Moller Wolfe
77′
Bakery Jatta 🔁
↦ Zakaria El Ouahdi
77′
77′
🟨 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
81′
🔁 Luca Waldschmidt
↦ Tom Krauß
81′
🔁 Marius Bülter
↦ Linton Maina
84′
🟨 Ellyes Skhiri
Martin Adeline 🔁
↦ Albert Sambi Lokonga
90′
90′
Ragnar Ache 2–1
Ellyes Skhiri
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Hamburg

3-4-2-1
1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes G
17 W. Omari D
23 J. Torunarigha D
24 N. Capaldo D
7 Z. El Ouahdi M
6 A. Sambi Lokonga M
21 N. Remberg M
3 D. Møller Wolfe M
20 Fábio Vieira M
11 A. Grønbæk M
9 T. Moffi F
Bench (9)
19 Otto Emerson Stange
12 S. Tangvik
5 M. Adeline
27 P. Daka
18 B. Jatta
37 L. Lemke
4 B. Nadir
43 S. Nandja
15 Y. Poulsen

Coach: M. Polzin

FC Koln

4-2-3-1
1 M. Schwäbe G
17 A. Castro-Montes D
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D
24 L. Lochoshvili D
14 G. Mensah D
6 E. Skhiri M
5 T. Krauß M
37 L. Maina M
47 M. Moore M
10 S. El Mala M
27 T. Dallinga F
Bench (9)
30 M. Bülter
8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
2 J. Schmied
28 S. Sebulonsen
3 B. Sosa
29 J. Thielmann
7 L. Waldschmidt
20 R. Zieler
9 R. Ache

Coach: René Wagner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,62
U
3,60
B
2,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,17
U1,5
4,70
O2,5 ✓
1,62
U2,5
2,36
O3,5
2,40
U3,5 ✓
1,52
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
1,50
BLS nei
2,50

Referee

Matthias Jollenbeck · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.