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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Excelsior

S T U U U

2–2

Full-time

Ajax

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 39%

30%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

60%

63%

Both score Ø 67%

60%

74%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,80 xG 0,63

48% Possession 52%

11 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 13. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	20	17	2	1	+36	+19.3	53
2	Feyenoord	20	12	3	5	+22	+19.9	39
3	Nijmegen	20	11	5	4	+18	+6.8	38
4	Sparta Rotterdam	21	11	2	8	-7	-2.8	35
5	Ajax	19	9	7	3	+11	+7.1	34
6	AZ Alkmaar	21	9	5	7	+1	+13.3	32
7	Twente	21	7	10	4	+7	+20.7	31
8	Groningen	20	9	4	7	+4	+11.3	31
9	Zwolle	21	7	5	9	-13	-14.7	26
10	For Sittard	20	7	4	9	-4	-12.4	25
11	Heerenveen	18	6	5	7	+1	+11.9	23
12	Utrecht	18	6	4	8	+3	-1.6	22
13	Excelsior	20	6	4	10	-15	-13.2	22
14	Go Ahead Eagles	19	4	9	6	-3	-12.1	21
15	Volendam	20	4	5	11	-14	-20.1	17
16	NAC Breda	21	3	7	11	-11	-8.2	16
17	Telstar	21	3	7	11	-12	-9.8	16
18	Heracles	20	4	2	14	-24	-15.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	7	2	1	+17	+11.6	23
2	Feyenoord	11	7	1	3	+11	+11.2	22
3	Nijmegen	9	6	2	1	+12	+7.2	20
4	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+10.3	20
5	Zwolle	10	6	1	3	+1	-0.0	19
6	For Sittard	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.8	17
7	Sparta Rotterdam	11	5	2	4	-5	-0.9	17
8	Utrecht	9	5	1	3	+8	+3.6	16
9	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	4	2	+2	+7.8	16
10	Twente	10	4	4	2	+2	+11.8	16
11	Groningen	10	4	3	3	+6	+9.3	15
12	Volendam	10	4	3	3	+3	-1.8	15
13	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.6	14
14	Heerenveen	10	3	4	3	-1	+8.1	13
15	Excelsior	10	4	1	5	-2	-5.5	13
16	NAC Breda	11	3	3	5	-2	+2.2	12
17	Heracles	9	3	1	5	-5	-3.4	10
18	Telstar	11	1	4	6	-6	-1.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+19	+7.8	30
2	Nijmegen	11	5	3	3	+6	-0.4	18
3	Sparta Rotterdam	10	6	0	4	-2	-1.9	18
4	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+11	+8.7	17
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	1	5	-1	+5.5	16
6	Groningen	10	5	1	4	-2	+2.0	16
7	Twente	11	3	6	2	+5	+8.9	15
8	Ajax	9	3	5	1	+3	-3.3	14
9	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
10	Telstar	10	2	3	5	-6	-8.7	9
11	Excelsior	10	2	3	5	-13	-7.8	9
12	For Sittard	10	2	2	6	-6	-11.6	8
13	Go Ahead Eagles	10	1	4	5	-6	-12.7	7
14	Zwolle	11	1	4	6	-14	-14.7	7
15	Utrecht	9	1	3	5	-5	-5.2	6
16	NAC Breda	10	0	4	6	-9	-10.3	4
17	Heracles	11	1	1	9	-19	-12.0	4
18	Volendam	10	0	2	8	-17	-18.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.