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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Celta

T U U U T

5–0

Full-time

Santander

T S T S T

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Santander

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,7

4,5

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,2

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,5

4,5

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 18. · Santander 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	6	0	0	+22	+14.3	18
2	Real Madrid	6	5	0	1	+11	+10.4	15
3	Betis	6	5	0	1	+2	+0.3	15
4	Ath Madrid	6	4	1	1	+8	+3.3	13
5	Sevilla	6	4	1	1	+3	-0.6	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+5	+3.1	11
7	La Coruna	6	2	3	1	+2	-1.6	9
8	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.1	8
9	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	-5.0	8
10	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	-0.6	8
11	Espanol	7	2	1	4	+0	-1.5	7
12	Santander	6	2	1	3	-5	-2.8	7
13	Sociedad	6	2	1	3	-5	-3.2	7
14	Villarreal	6	1	2	3	-1	+0.6	5
15	Levante	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.0	5
16	Getafe	6	1	2	3	-4	-3.2	5
17	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	-6.3	5
18	Celta	6	0	4	2	-3	-2.6	4
19	Valencia	6	1	1	4	-8	-0.1	4
20	Malaga	6	0	3	3	-8	-3.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	+10.5	9
2	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+10	+5.9	9
3	Alaves	4	3	0	1	+6	+1.5	9
4	Betis	3	3	0	0	+3	-0.1	9
5	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.5	7
6	Santander	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.9	7
7	Vallecano	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.6	7
8	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
9	Ath Bilbao	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.8	5
10	Getafe	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.5	5
11	Osasuna	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.4	5
12	La Coruna	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
13	Espanol	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.4	4
14	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.7	4
15	Levante	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.7	3
16	Malaga	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.8	2
17	Celta	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.0	1
18	Valencia	3	0	1	2	-6	+0.3	1
19	Villarreal	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
20	Elche	3	0	0	3	-7	-6.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+12	+3.8	9
2	Sevilla	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.8	7
3	Ath Madrid	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.8	6
4	Real Madrid	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.5	6
5	Betis	3	2	0	1	-1	+0.4	6
6	Elche	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.2	5
7	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	+1	+2.2	5
8	La Coruna	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.7	5
9	Espanol	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.1	3
10	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
11	Celta	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.5	3
12	Valencia	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
13	Sociedad	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.4	3
14	Osasuna	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.0	3
15	Alaves	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
16	Levante	3	0	2	1	-3	-0.7	2
17	Malaga	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1
18	Vallecano	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.5	1
19	Getafe	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.7	0
20	Santander	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.