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Eredivisie

Referee: Robin Hensgens

Willem II

S T T T U

0–3

Full-time

Excelsior

U S S T S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Willem II Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

5,2

3,7

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

3,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,7

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

3,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,86 xG 1,60

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Willem II 15. · Excelsior 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+12	+9.1	13
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+10	+7.5	12
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
4	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.6	7
5	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.2	7
6	For Sittard	4	2	1	1	+1	-6.5	7
7	Twente	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.1	6
8	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.2	6
9	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.0	6
10	Groningen	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.1	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.9	5
12	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.1	5
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.6	4
14	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.6	3
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.1	1
16	Den Haag	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.2	1
17	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-9	-3.0	1
18	Cambuur	4	0	0	4	-12	-5.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
2	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.6	4
4	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
5	Groningen	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
6	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	-4.5	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
8	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
9	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
10	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
12	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
13	Nijmegen	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.5	0
14	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
15	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
16	Telstar	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.1	0
17	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-8	-3.9	0
18	Cambuur	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.5	9
2	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.2	9
3	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.0	6
4	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.5	6
5	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.1	6
6	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.0	4
7	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
8	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.7	3
9	Twente	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.7	3
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
11	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
12	Groningen	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
13	Heerenveen	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.0	2
14	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
16	Den Haag	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.0	1
17	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.6	0
18	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.