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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

Ajax

U S U T S

2–2

Full-time

Excelsior

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 30%

43%

17%

Points per game

1,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

80%

77%

Both score Ø 74%

77%

70%

Average goals

4,0

3,6

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

1,9

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,57 xG 1,28

57% Possession 43%

8 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 5. · Excelsior 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	30	26	3	1	+78	+61.7	81
2	Feyenoord	30	22	6	2	+54	+59.3	72
3	Twente	31	19	6	6	+28	+18.0	63
4	AZ Alkmaar	30	16	7	7	+24	+14.9	55
5	Ajax	30	13	9	8	+7	+9.2	48
6	Nijmegen	29	12	10	7	+15	-12.9	46
7	Utrecht	29	11	9	9	+1	-4.3	42
8	Go Ahead Eagles	28	11	8	9	+6	-4.9	41
9	Sparta Rotterdam	30	11	7	12	+2	-6.5	40
10	Heerenveen	30	10	6	14	-6	-3.7	36
11	For Sittard	30	9	8	13	-18	+0.7	35
12	Almere City	31	7	12	12	-20	-15.5	33
13	Zwolle	30	8	8	14	-18	-12.8	32
14	Heracles	30	9	5	16	-22	-21.0	32
15	Excelsior	30	5	10	15	-20	-13.1	25
16	Waalwijk	30	6	6	18	-21	-13.0	24
17	Volendam	30	4	7	19	-44	-32.3	19
18	Vitesse	30	4	5	21	-46	-24.0	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	1	0	+39	+34.0	43
2	Twente	16	13	1	2	+18	+16.2	40
3	Feyenoord	15	11	3	1	+32	+32.7	36
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	10	2	3	+22	+16.9	32
5	Ajax	15	8	5	2	+15	+11.3	29
6	Nijmegen	14	8	3	3	+14	+3.2	27
7	Go Ahead Eagles	15	7	4	4	+13	+5.1	25
8	For Sittard	15	7	4	4	+7	+13.2	25
9	Utrecht	14	6	5	3	+5	+3.1	23
10	Heerenveen	15	6	3	6	+4	+6.3	21
11	Heracles	15	6	3	6	-5	-6.1	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	5	6	-2	+1.9	17
13	Excelsior	15	3	7	5	-2	+2.5	16
14	Waalwijk	15	4	4	7	-5	-1.9	16
15	Almere City	15	3	6	6	-9	-4.9	15
16	Zwolle	15	4	3	8	-13	+2.0	15
17	Volendam	15	3	2	10	-24	-8.9	11
18	Vitesse	15	1	5	9	-16	-5.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	12	2	1	+39	+27.7	38
2	Feyenoord	15	11	3	1	+22	+26.6	36
3	Twente	15	6	5	4	+10	+1.7	23
4	Sparta Rotterdam	15	7	2	6	+4	-8.4	23
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	5	4	+2	-2.0	23
6	Nijmegen	15	4	7	4	+1	-16.1	19
7	Utrecht	15	5	4	6	-4	-7.4	19
8	Ajax	15	5	4	6	-8	-2.1	19
9	Almere City	16	4	6	6	-11	-10.6	18
10	Zwolle	15	4	5	6	-5	-14.8	17
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	4	5	-7	-10.0	16
12	Heerenveen	15	4	3	8	-10	-9.9	15
13	Heracles	15	3	2	10	-17	-14.9	11
14	For Sittard	15	2	4	9	-25	-12.5	10
15	Excelsior	15	2	3	10	-18	-15.6	9
16	Vitesse	15	3	0	12	-30	-18.5	9
17	Waalwijk	15	2	2	11	-16	-11.2	8
18	Volendam	15	1	5	9	-20	-23.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.