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Eredivisie

Referee: Allard Lindhout

Ajax

S S S T S

5–1

Full-time

Willem II

T T U T U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

5,3

4,2

Scored

3,5

1,0

Conceded

1,8

3,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

2,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

4,0

3,8

Scored

2,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,8

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

70% Possession 30%

33 Shots 10

12 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

14 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 3

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 5. · Willem II 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	1	0	+15	+9.1	16
2	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	+11	+7.1	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	+13	+7.8	14
4	Twente	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.9	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+8	+2.6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	+6	+2.4	10
7	For Sittard	6	3	1	2	-2	-6.5	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	+2	-1.2	9
9	Groningen	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.9	8
10	Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	-1	+1.5	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.6	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.9	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	-6	-1.5	5
14	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	-8	-3.0	5
15	Cambuur	6	1	1	4	-9	-6.1	4
16	Zwolle	6	1	1	4	-11	-1.6	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	-9	-2.9	2
18	Den Haag	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Twente	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.4	9
2	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	1	0	+7	+4.6	7
3	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.4	7
4	Go Ahead Eagles	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.9	7
5	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
6	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.7	4
7	Excelsior	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.4	3
8	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.5	3
9	Cambuur	4	1	0	3	-7	-5.6	3
10	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
11	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
12	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
13	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.0	1
14	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.9	1
15	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
16	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.9	1
17	Den Haag	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.3	0
18	Zwolle	3	0	0	3	-11	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+13	+4.2	12
2	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+10	+2.0	9
3	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.5	9
4	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.7	9
5	Excelsior	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.8	7
6	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
7	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.5	6
8	Twente	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.5	4
9	Utrecht	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.9	4
10	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
11	Telstar	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.5	4
12	Groningen	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.1	4
13	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.9	3
14	Heerenveen	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.0	2
15	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.1	2
16	Cambuur	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
17	Willem II	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.9	1
18	Den Haag	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.