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Serie A

Referee: Federico La Penna

Milan

S S U U T

3–0

Full-time

Lecce

T S T T S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,93 xG 0,17

69% Possession 31%

10 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 8. · Lecce 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	5	4	1	0	+11	+5.8	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.9	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+5	+1.7	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	+3	-2.8	12
5	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+5	-2.9	10
6	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+4	+3.9	10
7	Como	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.3	10
8	Milan	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.5	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.4	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	-2	-3.3	6
12	Lecce	4	2	0	2	-2	-4.8	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.5	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.0	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	-4	+2.5	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	-6	+0.4	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.2	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	-7	-1.0	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	-9	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.0	9
2	Roma	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.0	7
3	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.0	7
4	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.5	6
5	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.0	6
6	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
7	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.2	4
8	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
9	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
10	Como	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
11	Monza	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
12	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
13	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
14	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-3	-4.3	3
15	Bologna	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.9	2
16	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.5	1
17	Fiorentina	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.5	1
18	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-5	-0.3	1
19	Torino	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
20	Venezia	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	3	3	0	0	+4	-0.4	9
2	Cagliari	3	3	0	0	+3	-0.8	9
3	Como	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.7	7
4	Roma	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.8	6
5	Milan	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.1	5
6	Frosinone	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.9	4
7	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.6	4
8	Inter	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.9	4
9	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
10	Lecce	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
11	Juventus	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
12	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.9	3
13	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.1	3
14	Sassuolo	3	0	1	2	-2	+2.0	1
15	Monza	3	0	1	2	-4	+1.9	1
16	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0
17	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
18	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
19	Parma	2	0	0	2	-3	-3.3	0
20	Atalanta	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.