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Serie A

Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi

Cagliari

S S S T T

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

S S T S T

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,61 xG 0,50

42% Possession 58%

20 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 12. · Lecce 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.3	9
2	Inter	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.0	9
3	Como	3	2	1	0	+4	-1.0	7
4	Milan	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.3	7
5	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.1	7
6	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+3	-2.8	6
7	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.0	6
8	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.7	6
9	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	4
10	Sassuolo	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.4	4
11	Napoli	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.4	3
12	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.0	3
13	Torino	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.5	3
14	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.0	3
15	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	+2.0	1
16	Parma	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.5	1
17	Monza	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.9	1
18	Venezia	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.1	0
19	Genoa	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.3	0
20	Fiorentina	3	0	0	3	-8	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.2	6
3	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+2	-2.7	6
4	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.3	4
5	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
6	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.8	3
9	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
10	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
11	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
12	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
13	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
14	Torino	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
15	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	-3.2	0
16	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
17	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
18	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0
19	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-5	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Como	3	2	1	0	+4	-1.0	7
2	Milan	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
3	Roma	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
4	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
5	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
6	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
7	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
8	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.2	3
10	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
11	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
12	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
13	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.8	1
14	Monza	2	0	1	1	-3	+0.2	1
15	Atalanta	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
16	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
17	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
18	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
19	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
20	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Feb -26 Cagliari – Lecce 0–2 19. Sep -25 Lecce – Cagliari 1–2 19. Jan -25 Cagliari – Lecce 4–1 31. Aug -24 Lecce – Cagliari 1–0 5. May -24 Cagliari – Lecce 1–1

Match report

Cagliari Lecce

1–0 Daniel Maldini ⚽

Jacopo Fazzini

29′

37′

🟨 Kialonda Gaspar

45′

🔁 Amar Fatah

↦ Oumar Ngom

Half-time 1–0

Mattia Felici 🔁

↦ Jacopo Fazzini

61′

Raphael Kofler 🔁

↦ Juan Rodriguez

66′

Alieu Fadera 🔁

↦ Daniel Maldini

66′

🔁 Jamil Siebert

↦ Kialonda Gaspar

66′

🔁 Youssef Maleh

↦ Ivan Ilić

66′

🔁 Konan N'Dri

↦ Joel Almada Monteiro

Roberto Gagliardini 🔁

↦ Mattia Felici

74′

A. Sugamele 🔁

↦ Paul Mendy

74′

82′

🔁 Medon Berisha

↦ Santiago Pierotti

Alessandro Deiola 🟨

95′

🟨 Jamil Siebert

Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-2-1

E. Caprile G

Zé Pedro D

A. Deiola D

J. Rodríguez D

A. Obert D

M. Adopo M

H. Winks M

A. Romano M

J. Fazzini M

D. Maldini M

P. Mendy F

Bench (14)

17 M. Felici

30 A. Akarakiri

24 G. Aurelio

20 R. Ciervo

39 A. Fadera

21 Roberto Gagliardini

36 N. Grandu

22 R. Kofler

27 J. Liteta

79 Y. Massolin

23 B. Radunović

12 A. Sherri

32 Ivan Stoyanov Sulev

35 A. Sugamele

Coach: F. Pisacane

Lecce

4-3-3

W. Falcone G

Danilo Veiga D

Kialonda Gaspar D

Tiago Gabriel D

A. Gallo D

L. Coulibaly M

O. Ngom M

I. Ilić M

S. Pierotti F

N. Štulić F

Joël Monteiro F

Bench (15)

5 J. Siebert

31 E. Scott

33 P. Penev

16 O. Gandelman

11 K. N’Dri

3 C. Ndaba

14 Y. Maleh

18 G. Jean

28 Olaf Gorter

8 S. Fofana

7 A. Ahmed Fatah

22 Paco Esteban

2 A. Dembélé

1 M. Bleve

10 M. Berisha

Coach: E. Di Francesco

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

2,00

🔒

1xBet 2,14 Superbet 2,12 Pinnacle 2,11 Betano 2,10 Betfair 2,10 William Hill 2,10 SBO 2,09 Marathonbet 2,09 Unibet 2,08 Bet365 2,05 Dafabet 2,05 BetVictor 2,05 10Bet 2,00

3,15

🔒

1xBet 3,31 Pinnacle 3,24 Marathonbet 3,24 Bet365 3,20 Dafabet 3,20 Superbet 3,20 BetVictor 3,20 Betano 3,15 10Bet 3,10 Betfair 3,10 William Hill 3,10 SBO 3,04 Unibet 3,00

3,99

🔒

Dafabet 4,20 1xBet 4,07 Pinnacle 4,07 10Bet 4,00 Bet365 4,00 Betfair 4,00 Marathonbet 3,98 Betano 3,95 Superbet 3,90 BetVictor 3,90 Unibet 3,85 SBO 3,65 William Hill 3,50

Over/under goals

O1,5

1,40

🔒