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Serie A

Referee: Matteo Marcenaro

Lazio

S T S S S

2–2

Full-time

Milan

S T S S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,05 xG 1,09

34% Possession 66%

8 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 3. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.3	9
2	Inter	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.0	9
3	Lazio	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.0	9
4	Como	3	2	1	0	+4	-1.0	7
5	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+3	-2.6	7
6	Milan	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.3	7
7	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.1	7
8	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.7	6
9	Cagliari	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.9	6
10	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
11	Sassuolo	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.4	4
12	Napoli	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.4	3
13	Torino	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.5	3
14	Lecce	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.1	3
15	Fiorentina	4	1	0	3	-6	+0.9	3
16	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	+2.0	1
17	Parma	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.5	1
18	Monza	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.9	1
19	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-6	-1.5	1
20	Venezia	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.2	6
3	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+2	-2.7	6
4	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.3	4
5	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
6	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.8	3
9	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
10	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
11	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
12	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
13	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-5	-0.3	1
14	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
15	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
16	Torino	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
17	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.3	0
18	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
19	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Como	3	2	1	0	+4	-1.0	7
2	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.2	6
3	Frosinone	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.9	4
4	Milan	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
5	Roma	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
6	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
7	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
8	Lecce	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
9	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
10	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.2	3
11	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
12	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
13	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.1	3
14	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.8	1
15	Monza	2	0	1	1	-3	+0.2	1
16	Atalanta	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
17	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
18	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
19	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
20	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.