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Serie A

Referee: Valerio Crezzini

Lecce

S T S T T

3–2

Full-time

Monza

S T T S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

1,08 xG 2,79

39% Possession 61%

7 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 11

1 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 14. · Monza 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.0	10
2	Roma	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.3	9
3	Inter	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.0	9
4	Cagliari	4	3	0	1	+2	-2.0	9
5	Milan	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
6	Como	3	2	1	0	+4	-1.0	7
7	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+3	-2.6	7
8	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.1	7
9	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.6	6
10	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
11	Sassuolo	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.4	4
12	Napoli	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.4	3
13	Torino	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.5	3
14	Lecce	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.1	3
15	Fiorentina	4	1	0	3	-6	+0.9	3
16	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	+2.0	1
17	Parma	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.5	1
18	Monza	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.9	1
19	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-6	-1.5	1
20	Venezia	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+4	-0.2	6
3	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
4	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.3	4
5	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.2	4
6	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
7	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
8	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.8	3
9	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.1	3
10	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
11	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
12	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
13	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-5	-0.3	1
14	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
15	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
16	Torino	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
17	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.3	0
18	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-4	+1.0	0
19	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Como	3	2	1	0	+4	-1.0	7
2	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.0	6
3	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.2	6
4	Milan	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.1	5
5	Frosinone	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.9	4
6	Roma	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
7	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
8	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
9	Lecce	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.5	3
10	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.2	3
11	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
12	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
13	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.1	3
14	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.8	1
15	Monza	2	0	1	1	-3	+0.2	1
16	Atalanta	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
17	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
18	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
19	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
20	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.