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Coppa Italia

Referee: P Tremolada

Milan

S T S S S

3–0

Full-time

Lecce

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Coppa Italia · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

77% Possession 23%

24 Shots 2

10 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

12 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 9. · Lecce 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Virtus Entella	2	1	1	0	+4	4
3	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Audace Cerignola	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Venezia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Como	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Parma	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Torino	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Vicenza	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Pescara	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Reggiana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Palermo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Rimini	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Bari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Mantova	1	0	0	1	-4	0
36	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Audace Cerignola	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Venezia	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Virtus Entella	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Como	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Parma	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Torino	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Pescara	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Cremonese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Padova	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vicenza	2	1	0	1	-1	3
2	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-2	3
3	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
4	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Reggiana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Palermo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
9	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Rimini	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Avellino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Carrarese	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Bari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Juve Stabia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Mantova	1	0	0	1	-4	0
19	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.