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Europa League
Referee: Jarred Gillett
Milan
T S S U U
0–2
Full-time
Benfica
S S S S S
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,8
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,7
Scored
1,7
3,0
Conceded
1,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,96 xG 0,64
60% Possession 40%
17 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
10 Corners 1
0 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Milan Benfica
S. Pavlovic 🟨
11′
16′
⚽ D. Lukebakio 0–1
J. Kaminski
26′
🟨 S. El Karouani
37′
🟨 J. Duran
Half-time 0–1
C. Pulisic 🔁
↦ O. Hutchinson
46′
M. Gila 🔁
↦ F. Terracciano
46′
53′
⚽ J. Kaminski 0–2
S. El Karouani
D. Moreira 🔁
↦ A. Cisse
57′
A. Saelemaekers 🔁
↦ D. Bartesaghi
57′
70′
🔁 L. Barreiro
↦ F. Aursnes
70′
🔁 G. Prestianni
↦ G. Sudakov
A. Rabiot 🔁
↦ A. Jashari
73′
77′
🟨 D. Banjaqui
80′
🔁 A. Schjelderup
↦ J. Kaminski
80′
🔁 V. Pavlidis
↦ J. Duran
84′
🟨 L. Barreiro
88′
🔁 S. Dahl
↦ S. El Karouani
92′
🟨 V. Pavlidis
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Milan

3-4-2-1
16 Mike Maignan G
42 Filippo Terracciano D
5 Koni De Winter D
31 Strahinja Pavlović D
21 Samuel Chukwueze M
80 Yunus Musah M
30 Ardon Jashari M
33 Davide Bartesaghi M
20 Omari Hutchinson F
70 Alphadjo Cissè F
9 Gonçalo Ramos F
Bench (12)
96 Lorenzo Torriani
23 Fikayo Tomori
34 Mario Gila
46 Matteo Gabbia
2 Pervis Estupiñán
8 Ruben Loftus-Cheek
12 Adrien Rabiot
14 Luka Modrić
22 Diego Moreira
56 Alexis Saelemaekers
11 Christian Pulišić
73 Francesco Camarda

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 Anatoliy Trubin G
58 Daniel Banjaqui D
44 Tomás Araújo D
3 Alessandro Circati D
34 Souffian El Karouani D
8 Fredrik Aursnes M
36 João Palhinha M
11 Dodi Lukebakio M
10 Georgiy Sudakov M
13 Jakub Kamiński M
22 Jhon Durán F
Bench (12)
24 Samuel Soares
2 Clément Lenglet
26 Samuel Dahl
5 Enzo Barrenechea
16 Manu Silva
18 Leandro Barreiro
21 Andreas Schjelderup
25 Gianluca Prestianni
27 Rafa Silva
30 Claudio Echeverri
14 Vangelis Pavlidis
72 Anísio Cabral

Coach: Marco Silva

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,25
🔒
U
3,58
🔒
B ✓
3,00
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
1,21
🔒
U1,5
4,15
🔒
O2,5
1,72
🔒
U2,5 ✓
2,15
🔒
O3,5
2,70
🔒
U3,5 ✓
1,44
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
1,57
🔒
BLS nei ✓
2,25
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.