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Eredivisie

Referee: Jeroen Manschot

Heerenveen

T S U T U

2–3

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U S S S S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

25%

100%

Points per game

1,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

1,3

3,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,48 xG 1,04

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 12. · AZ Alkmaar 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+12	+9.1	13
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+10	+7.5	12
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
4	Excelsior	4	3	0	1	+7	+2.0	9
5	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.6	7
6	Twente	4	2	1	1	+4	+4.9	7
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.2	7
8	For Sittard	4	2	1	1	+1	-6.5	7
9	Groningen	5	2	1	2	-1	-1.9	7
10	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+2	+2.0	6
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.9	5
12	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.1	5
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.6	4
14	Telstar	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.6	3
15	Den Haag	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.2	1
16	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-9	-3.0	1
17	Willem II	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.9	1
18	Cambuur	4	0	0	4	-12	-5.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
2	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.6	4
4	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
5	Twente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
6	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	-4.5	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
8	Heerenveen	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
9	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
10	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
12	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.9	1
13	Nijmegen	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.5	0
14	Den Haag	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
15	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
16	Telstar	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.1	0
17	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-8	-3.9	0
18	Cambuur	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.5	9
2	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.2	9
3	Excelsior	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.4	6
4	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.0	6
5	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.5	6
6	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.1	6
7	Twente	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.5	4
8	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.0	4
9	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
11	Telstar	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
12	Groningen	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
13	Heerenveen	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.0	2
14	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
15	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
16	Den Haag	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.0	1
17	Cambuur	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.6	0
18	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.