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Eredivisie

Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

AZ Alkmaar

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Willem II

T T T U T

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,5

5,0

Scored

3,2

2,0

Conceded

1,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

60%

100%

Both score Ø 68%

60%

75%

Average goals

4,2

4,3

Scored

3,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

3,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

22 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 1. · Willem II 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	5	5	0	0	+11	+7.1	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+12	+9.1	13
3	Feyenoord	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
4	Excelsior	5	3	1	1	+7	+2.4	10
5	Twente	5	3	1	1	+5	+4.9	10
6	For Sittard	5	3	1	1	+2	-6.5	10
7	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.2	8
8	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.6	7
9	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.5	7
10	Groningen	5	2	1	2	-1	-1.9	7
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	+0	-1.9	5
12	Heerenveen	5	1	2	2	-2	-2.6	5
13	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.6	4
14	Telstar	5	1	1	3	-6	-1.5	4
15	Utrecht	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.0	2
16	Den Haag	5	0	1	4	-8	-6.2	1
17	Willem II	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.9	1
18	Cambuur	5	0	1	4	-12	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
2	Go Ahead Eagles	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.9	6
3	Twente	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.4	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.6	4
5	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
6	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	-4.5	3
7	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
8	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
9	Feyenoord	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.6	2
10	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
12	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.0	1
13	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.9	1
14	Telstar	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
15	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.9	1
16	Den Haag	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.3	0
17	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0
18	Cambuur	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.5	9
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.7	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.2	9
4	Excelsior	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.8	7
5	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
6	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.0	6
7	Nijmegen	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.5	6
8	Twente	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.5	4
9	Zwolle	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
10	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.9	3
11	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
12	Groningen	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.1	3
13	Heerenveen	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.0	2
14	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.1	2
15	Utrecht	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.9	1
16	Cambuur	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
17	Den Haag	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.0	1
18	Willem II	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.