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Bundesliga

Referee: Max Burda

Paderborn

S U S S U

0–1

Full-time

Freiburg

T S S S S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,7

Scored

1,7

3,3

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

0,0

5,0

Scored

0,0

4,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paderborn 12. · Freiburg 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.3	3
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
3	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
4	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.9	3
5	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
6	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.6	3
7	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.3	3
8	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.1	3
9	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
12	Paderborn	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
14	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
15	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
16	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
17	Schalke 04	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
18	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	+4	+3.3	3
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	+3	+1.8	3
3	Stuttgart	1	1	0	+3	–	3
4	Augsburg	1	1	0	+3	+1.6	3
5	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	+3	+2.9	3
6	Dortmund	1	1	0	+2	+0.6	3
7	FC Koln	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	3
8	Elversberg	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	3
9	Union Berlin	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	1
10	Mainz	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	1

#	Team	K	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
2	Paderborn	1	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
3	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
4	Leverkusen	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	0
5	Hamburg	1	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
6	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
7	FC Koln	1	0	1	-3	–	0
8	Schalke 04	1	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
9	M'gladbach	1	0	1	-3	-2.9	0
10	Stuttgart	1	0	1	-4	-3.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.