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DFB-Pokal
Referee: K Oldhafer
Erzgebirge Aue
T T S T T
0–4
Full-time
Hoffenheim
S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzgebirge Aue Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,5
Scored
0,7
1,7
Conceded
2,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
-2,2
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

35% Possession 65%
5 Shots 28
1 Shots on target 12
3 Blocked shots 11
7 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 15
2 Offside 2
4 Free kicks against 6
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Erzgebirge Aue Hoffenheim
6′
⚽ P. Wimmer 0–1
N. De Cat
17′
⚽ W. Burger 0–2
P. Wimmer
Maxim Burghardt 🟨
42′
45′
⚽ P. Wimmer 0–3
Half-time 0–3
61′
🔁 B. Conte
↦ A. Hlozek
61′
🔁 M. Moerstedt
↦ T. Lemperle
61′
🔁 A. Daghim
↦ N. De Cat
63′
⚽ M. Moerstedt 0–4
B. Conte
F. Heidrich 🔁
↦ D. Angleberger
68′
C. Pauling 🔁
↦ S. Skarlatidis
68′
L. Queisser 🔁
↦ W. Kamm
68′
S. Kokovas 🔁
↦ P. Wagner
77′
77′
🔁 V. Gendrey
↦ V. Coufal
77′
🔁 N. Abraha
↦ P. Wimmer
L. Prosche 🔁
↦ M. Burghardt
84′
Full-time 0–4

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.