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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Paderborn

T T U S U

2–1

Full-time

Wolfsburg

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Wolfsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/35 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

63%

Both score Ø 36%

71%

Average goals

0,0

3,3

Scored

0,0

1,3

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

67% Possession 33%

39 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

19 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	34	28	5	1	+86	+58.8	89
2	Dortmund	34	22	7	5	+36	+24.1	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	+19	+16.1	65
4	Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	+22	+9.1	62
5	Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	+13	+4.9	61
6	Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	+21	+19.5	59
7	Freiburg	34	13	8	13	-6	-0.0	47
8	Ein Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	-4	-4.9	44
9	Augsburg	34	12	7	15	-16	-16.8	43
10	Mainz	34	10	10	14	-9	-2.2	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	-14	-6.3	39
12	M'gladbach	34	9	11	14	-11	-9.8	38
13	Hamburg	34	9	11	14	-14	-19.8	38
14	FC Koln	34	7	11	16	-14	-3.5	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	-23	-13.3	32
16	Wolfsburg	35	7	9	19	-24	-13.7	30
17	Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	-31	-16.3	26
18	St Pauli	34	6	8	20	-31	-26.0	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	2	1	+49	+35.5	44
2	Dortmund	17	13	2	2	+24	+21.5	41
3	Stuttgart	17	12	3	2	+14	+12.5	39
4	RB Leipzig	17	12	2	3	+20	+14.5	38
5	Hoffenheim	17	10	2	5	+14	+9.1	32
6	Freiburg	17	9	5	3	+11	+10.8	32
7	Leverkusen	17	9	4	4	+19	+24.6	31
8	Augsburg	17	7	5	5	-3	-5.0	26
9	Ein Frankfurt	17	7	4	6	+2	+4.3	25
10	Hamburg	17	6	6	5	+3	-1.2	24
11	M'gladbach	17	6	6	5	+0	-2.1	24
12	Union Berlin	17	5	7	5	+0	+7.5	22
13	FC Koln	17	5	4	8	+0	+4.8	19
14	Werder Bremen	17	5	4	8	-12	+1.1	19
15	Mainz	17	4	5	8	-4	+4.3	17
16	Heidenheim	17	4	5	8	-14	-9.0	17
17	St Pauli	17	4	5	8	-14	-9.9	17
18	Wolfsburg	18	2	5	11	-11	+1.1	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	3	0	+37	+23.2	45
2	Dortmund	17	9	5	3	+12	+2.7	32
3	Hoffenheim	17	8	5	4	-1	-4.1	29
4	Leverkusen	17	8	4	5	+2	-5.1	28
5	RB Leipzig	17	8	3	6	-1	+1.6	27
6	Stuttgart	17	6	5	6	+8	-3.4	23
7	Mainz	17	6	5	6	-5	-6.5	23
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	7	6	-6	-9.3	19
9	Wolfsburg	17	5	4	8	-13	-14.9	19
10	Augsburg	17	5	2	10	-13	-11.8	17
11	Union Berlin	17	5	2	10	-14	-13.8	17
12	Freiburg	17	4	3	10	-17	-10.8	15
13	M'gladbach	17	3	5	9	-11	-7.7	14
14	Hamburg	17	3	5	9	-17	-18.6	14
15	Werder Bremen	17	3	4	10	-11	-14.4	13
16	FC Koln	17	2	7	8	-14	-8.3	13
17	Heidenheim	17	2	3	12	-17	-7.3	9
18	St Pauli	17	2	3	12	-17	-16.1	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.