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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

Hoffenheim

U T S S S

3–0

Full-time

Paderborn

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

44%

11%

Points per game

1,6

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

56%

78%

Both score Ø 61%

44%

78%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,4

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

63% Possession 37%

12 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 10. · Paderborn 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	9	6	1	2	+10	19
2	Bayern Munich	9	5	3	1	+13	18
3	Freiburg	9	5	2	2	+7	17
4	Wolfsburg	9	4	5	0	+6	17
5	Dortmund	9	4	4	1	+9	16
6	RB Leipzig	9	4	3	2	+7	15
7	Schalke 04	9	4	3	2	+5	15
8	Leverkusen	9	4	3	2	+1	15
9	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	2	3	+2	14
10	Hoffenheim	9	4	2	3	-2	14
11	Hertha	9	3	2	4	-1	11
12	Werder Bremen	9	2	4	3	-4	10
13	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-9	9
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	2	1	6	-6	7
15	Union Berlin	9	2	1	6	-6	7
16	FC Koln	9	2	1	6	-10	7
17	Augsburg	9	1	4	4	-11	7
18	Paderborn	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+5	11
2	Bayern Munich	5	3	1	1	+9	10
3	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	M'gladbach	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Leverkusen	5	2	3	0	+3	9
6	Wolfsburg	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
8	Schalke 04	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Hertha	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Union Berlin	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-3	6
13	RB Leipzig	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	-2	5
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	FC Koln	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Paderborn	5	1	0	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+8	10
2	M'gladbach	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Bayern Munich	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Hoffenheim	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Werder Bremen	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Dortmund	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Hertha	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	FC Koln	5	1	1	3	-6	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Mainz	5	1	0	4	-9	3
16	Augsburg	5	0	2	3	-9	2
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Paderborn	4	0	1	3	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.