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Ligue 1

Referee: Bastien Dechepy

Nice

T U S T S

2–0

Full-time

Lille

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 67%

78%

56%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,6

2,4

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,77 xG 0,99

32% Possession 68%

8 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 9

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 13

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 8. · Lille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	6	2	1	+11	+5.6	20
2	Lens	9	6	1	2	+6	+4.6	19
3	Marseille	9	6	0	3	+13	+8.1	18
4	Lyon	9	6	0	3	+4	+7.7	18
5	Lille	9	5	2	2	+11	+6.9	17
6	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+5	+5.2	17
7	Strasbourg	9	5	1	3	+6	+4.9	16
8	Nice	9	4	2	3	-1	-6.5	14
9	Toulouse	9	4	1	4	+2	+0.6	13
10	Rennes	9	2	5	2	-2	-2.2	11
11	Paris FC	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.1	10
12	Brest	9	2	3	4	-3	+0.3	9
13	Nantes	9	2	3	4	-3	-7.5	9
14	Le Havre	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.8	9
15	Angers	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.5	9
16	Lorient	9	2	2	5	-9	-0.8	8
17	Auxerre	9	2	1	6	-6	-3.1	7
18	Metz	9	0	2	7	-20	-12.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+7	+7.0	13
2	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.0	12
3	Lens	5	4	0	1	+6	+6.8	12
4	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+5	+6.3	12
5	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
6	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
7	Nice	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.1	10
8	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
9	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.9	8
10	Angers	5	2	2	1	+1	-2.4	8
11	Toulouse	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.0	7
12	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.6	7
13	Paris FC	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.9	6
14	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.3	6
15	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+1	+4.6	5
16	Brest	5	1	2	2	-1	+2.0	5
17	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.9	4
18	Metz	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.5	10
2	Lille	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.1	7
3	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
4	Lens	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.2	7
5	Marseille	5	2	0	3	+1	+0.0	6
6	Lyon	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.4	6
7	Toulouse	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
8	Nantes	5	1	2	2	-1	-4.6	5
9	Brest	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
10	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
11	Nice	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.5	4
12	Paris FC	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.0	4
13	Le Havre	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.5	4
14	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-4	-4.1	3
15	Auxerre	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1
16	Angers	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
17	Lorient	5	0	1	4	-9	-2.4	1
18	Metz	5	0	0	5	-16	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.