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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Nice

U T S S U

2–2

Full-time

Lille

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

40%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,11 xG 1,68

43% Possession 57%

17 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 6. · Lille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+23	+21.7	29
2	Monaco	11	7	2	2	+10	+12.8	23
3	Marseille	11	6	2	3	+9	-1.3	20
4	Lille	10	5	3	2	+7	+4.4	18
5	Lens	11	4	5	2	+3	+3.8	17
6	Nice	10	4	4	2	+10	+6.0	16
7	Auxerre	11	5	1	5	+1	-2.5	16
8	Lyon	10	4	3	3	+2	+3.9	15
9	Reims	10	4	2	4	+1	-4.0	14
10	Strasbourg	11	3	4	4	-2	-4.0	13
11	Brest	10	4	1	5	-3	-6.0	13
12	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	+0	+6.6	12
13	Rennes	10	3	2	5	-3	-1.0	11
14	Nantes	11	2	4	5	-3	-3.9	10
15	Angers	11	2	4	5	-7	-7.4	10
16	St Etienne	10	3	1	6	-14	-8.8	10
17	Le Havre	10	3	0	7	-12	-6.8	9
18	Montpellier	10	1	1	8	-22	-13.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+13	+10.2	15
2	Auxerre	5	4	0	1	+6	+3.9	12
3	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.1	11
4	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+3	+6.0	11
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.1	10
6	Brest	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
7	St Etienne	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.4	9
8	Nice	4	2	2	0	+9	+5.0	8
9	Lille	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
10	Lens	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.4	8
11	Toulouse	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.4	8
12	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+0	+3.1	7
13	Reims	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
14	Le Havre	5	2	0	3	-7	-4.7	6
15	Nantes	5	1	2	2	+0	+1.9	5
16	Marseille	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.2	5
17	Angers	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.2	4
18	Montpellier	5	1	1	3	-9	-3.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	6	5	0	1	+12	-0.1	15
2	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+10	+11.4	14
3	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.9	12
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.8	10
5	Lens	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.6	9
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
7	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.0	8
8	Reims	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.1	7
9	Angers	5	1	3	1	-1	-3.2	6
10	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.9	5
11	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	+0	+3.2	4
12	Auxerre	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.4	4
13	Le Havre	5	1	0	4	-5	-2.1	3
14	Brest	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
15	Strasbourg	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.9	2
16	Rennes	5	0	1	4	-9	-4.1	1
17	St Etienne	5	0	1	4	-15	-11.1	1
18	Montpellier	5	0	0	5	-13	-10.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.