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Ligue 1

Referee: Mathieu Vernice

Toulouse

U S S T U

0–1

Full-time

Lille

U S T S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

24 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 9

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 16. · Lille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
2	Paris FC	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.0	4
3	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
4	Lyon	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
5	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
6	Troyes	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	+2	+3.7	3
8	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.4	3
9	Angers	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
10	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.8	3
11	Brest	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.9	2
12	Paris SG	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.5	2
13	Le Mans	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.1	1
14	Le Havre	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
16	Toulouse	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.2	1
17	Nice	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
18	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
2	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.7	3
3	Lens	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
4	Paris FC	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
7	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.9	1
8	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
9	Le Mans	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.1	1
10	Lyon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
12	Troyes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.4	1
13	Lorient	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
14	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
15	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
16	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.8	0
17	Toulouse	1	0	0	1	-2	+2.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Angers	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
2	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.8	3
3	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+2	-2.1	3
4	Troyes	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
6	Paris SG	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.5	2
7	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.9	1
8	Brest	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.1	1
9	Le Havre	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
10	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
11	Paris FC	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.4	1
12	Le Mans	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
14	Marseille	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
15	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
16	Nice	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
17	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Apr -26 Toulouse – Lille 0–4 14. Sep -25 Lille – Toulouse 2–1 12. Apr -25 Toulouse – Lille 1–2 5. Oct -24 Lille – Toulouse 2–1 25. Feb -24 Toulouse – Lille 3–1

Match report

Toulouse Lille

Santiago Hidalgo 🟨

20′

Thomas Jorgensen ℹ️

VAR: Penalty cancelled

34′

45′

🔁 Dilane Bakwa

↦ Osame Sahraoui

45′

🔁 Romain Perraud

↦ Calvin Verdonk

Half-time 0–0

Julián Vignolo 🔁

↦ Santiago Hidalgo

57′

🔁 Ayase Ueda

↦ Olivier Giroud

57′

🔁 Ngal'ayel Mukau

↦ Ethan Mbappe

Casper Tengstedt 🔁

↦ Jacen Russell-Rowe

65′

Ismaïl Diallo 🔁

↦ Rafik Messali

66′

71′

🔁 Basar Onal

↦ Nabil Bentaleb

Mathys Niflore 🔁

↦ Guillaume Restes

71′

Niklas Schmidt 🔁

↦ Alexis Vossah

72′

73′

⚽ Ayase Ueda 0–1

Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Toulouse

4-2-3-1

G. Restes G

R. Messali D

M. McKenzie D

R. Nicolaisen D

C. Tapé D

C. Cásseres M

A. Vossah M

S. Hidalgo M

T. Jørgensen M

Y. Azizi M

J. Russell-Rowe F

Bench (9)

7 Julián Vignolo

5 S. Koumbassa

94 I. Diallo

18 M. Amougou

60 M. Niflore

11 S. Oppong

31 N. Schmidt

14 N. Sigur

20 C. Tengstedt

Coach: Jens Berthel Askou

Lille

4-2-3-1

B. Özer G

Tiago Santos D

N. Ngoy D

Alexsandro Ribeiro D

C. Verdonk D

B. André M

N. Bentaleb M

E. Mbappé M

H. Haraldsson M

O. Sahraoui M

O. Giroud F

Bench (9)

26 I. Cossier

12 O. Gill

14 M. Kjærgaard

17 N. Mukau

15 R. Perraud

28 G. Perrin

18 A. Ueda

7 D. Bakwa

19 B. Önal

Coach: Davide Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

3,36

🔒

1xBet 4,16 Pinnacle 4,13 BetVictor 4,10 Marathonbet 4,10 Betfair 4,00 Betano 3,95 10Bet 3,90 Bet365 3,90 William Hill 3,80 Unibet 3,75 Superbet 3,45 Dafabet 3,40 SBO 2,97

3,30

🔒

1xBet 3,60 Pinnacle 3,56 Marathonbet 3,55 10Bet 3,50 Bet365 3,50 Betano 3,50 Unibet 3,40 Betfair 3,40 BetVictor 3,40 Dafabet 3,35 Superbet 3,30 William Hill 3,30 SBO 3,02

B ✓

2,12

🔒

Dafabet 2,24 Superbet 2,22 SBO 2,16 1xBet 2,01 Pinnacle 1,98 Marathonbet 1,98 Bet365 1,95 Betano 1,95 Betfair 1,95 William Hill 1,95 Unibet 1,94 BetVictor 1,93 10Bet 1,90

Over/under goals

O1,5

1,29

🔒