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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Nice

U T U T U

4–1

Full-time

St Etienne

T T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice St Etienne

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/1 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

49%

Both score Ø 29%

57%

Average goals

2,8

0,0

Scored

1,1

0,0

Conceded

1,7

0,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	24	4	6	+45	+40.4	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	+31	+23.9	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	+15	+18.6	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	+13	+8.4	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	+18	+13.8	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	+9	+1.2	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	+6	+7.8	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	+11	+8.2	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	-1.0	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	+1	-0.1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	-10.8	44
12	Brest	34	10	9	15	-12	-6.0	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	-23.5	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	-13.0	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	-12.8	34
16	Nice	35	7	12	16	-23	-15.8	33
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	-11.7	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	-27.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	17	14	0	3	+22	+21.5	42
2	Paris SG	17	13	2	2	+29	+24.9	41
3	Marseille	17	11	4	2	+21	+13.7	37
4	Lyon	17	12	1	4	+12	+11.6	37
5	Rennes	17	10	4	3	+13	+7.0	34
6	Monaco	17	10	2	5	+10	+9.8	32
7	Strasbourg	17	9	3	5	+11	+11.3	30
8	Lorient	17	8	6	3	+6	+5.7	30
9	Lille	17	8	5	4	+7	+14.5	29
10	Brest	17	7	5	5	+5	+6.6	26
11	Paris FC	17	7	4	6	+1	-1.6	25
12	Toulouse	17	6	6	5	+1	+5.8	24
13	Le Havre	17	5	8	4	+2	+1.2	23
14	Angers	17	6	5	6	-2	-8.7	23
15	Auxerre	17	6	4	7	+1	-0.2	22
16	Nice	17	4	8	5	-8	-3.7	20
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-9	-4.8	12
18	Metz	17	2	4	11	-17	-3.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	11	2	4	+16	+15.6	35
2	Lille	17	10	2	5	+8	+4.2	32
3	Lens	17	8	4	5	+9	+2.4	28
4	Rennes	17	7	4	6	-4	-5.8	25
5	Lyon	17	6	5	6	+1	-3.2	23
6	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	+0	-3.1	23
7	Marseille	17	7	1	9	-3	+0.1	22
8	Monaco	17	6	4	7	-4	-2.0	22
9	Toulouse	16	6	2	8	+0	-6.0	20
10	Paris FC	17	4	7	6	-4	-9.2	19
11	Lorient	17	3	6	8	-9	-6.7	15
12	Nice	18	3	4	11	-15	-12.2	13
13	Brest	17	3	4	10	-17	-12.5	13
14	Angers	17	3	4	10	-17	-14.8	13
15	Auxerre	17	2	6	9	-11	-12.6	12
16	Le Havre	17	2	6	9	-14	-14.1	12
17	Nantes	17	2	5	10	-14	-6.9	11
18	Metz	17	1	4	12	-27	-24.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.