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Serie A
Referee: Matteo Marcenaro
Roma
S S S S S
4–0
Full-time
Fiorentina
T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,2
Scored
2,3
1,2
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,07 xG 0,35
61% Possession 39%
17 Shots 9
8 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Inter 1 1 0 0 +3 -0.2 3
2 Napoli 1 1 0 0 +2 +0.1 3
3 Lecce 1 1 0 0 +2 +0.7 3
4 Atalanta 1 1 0 0 +1 -1.8 3
5 Milan 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.9 3
6 Cagliari 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.2 3
7 Lazio 1 1 0 0 +1 -1.1 3
8 Juventus 1 1 0 0 +1 +1.8 3
9 Udinese 1 0 1 0 +0 +0.6 1
10 Como 1 0 1 0 +0 -0.6 1
11 Sassuolo 1 0 0 1 -1 +1.8 0
12 Torino 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.9 0
13 Parma 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.2 0
14 Bologna 1 0 0 1 -1 +1.1 0
15 Frosinone 1 0 0 1 -1 -1.8 0
16 Genoa 1 0 0 1 -2 -0.1 0
17 Venezia 1 0 0 1 -2 -0.7 0
18 Monza 1 0 0 1 -3 +0.2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. May -26 Roma – Fiorentina 4–0 5. Oct -25 Fiorentina – Roma 1–2 4. May -25 Roma – Fiorentina 1–0 27. Oct -24 Fiorentina – Roma 5–1 10. Mar -24 Fiorentina – Roma 2–2

Match report

Roma Fiorentina
1–0 D. Malen ⚽
P. Dybala
27′
30′
🟨 Nicolò Fagioli
Mario Hermoso 🟨
39′
Half-time 1–0
Manu Koné 🟨
49′
2–0 D. Malen ⚽
P. Dybala
52′
M. Soule 🔁
↦ R. Mora
54′
3–0 D. Malen ⚽
P. Dybala
60′
62′
🔁 A. Jimenez
↦ M. Brescianini
62′
🔁 C. Inao Oulai
↦ N. Fagioli
63′
🟨 Mateo Pellegrino
63′
🔁 M. Kean
↦ F. Mastantuono
K. Koulierakis 🔁
↦ M. Hermoso
68′
S. Castro 🔁
↦ D. Malen
68′
74′
🔁 R. Mandragora
↦ A. Atta
N. Pisilli 🔁
↦ M. Kone
79′
N. El Aynaoui 🔁
↦ P. Dybala
79′
80′
🔁 V. Valdepenas
↦ Joao Mario
4–0 N. Pisilli ⚽
86′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
23 G. Mancini D
5 E. Ndicka D
22 M. Hermoso D
77 E. Lulli M
4 B. Cristante M
17 M. Kone M
43 Wesley Franca M
21 P. Dybala F
86 R. Mora F
14 D. Malen F
Bench (11)
70 G. De Marzi
95 P. Gollini
20 N. Molina
3 K. Koulierakis
24 J. Ziolkowski
87 D. Ghilardi
61 N. Pisilli
8 N. El Aynaoui
9 S. Castro
78 R. Vaz
18 M. Soule

Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian

Fiorentina

4-3-2-1
43 D. de Gea G
2 Dodo D
3 R. Dragusin D
6 L. Ranieri D
17 Joao Mario D
27 C. Ndour M
44 N. Fagioli M
4 M. Brescianini M
30 F. Mastantuono M
14 A. Atta M
32 M. Pellegrino F
Bench (14)
19 L. Lezzerini
53 O. Christensen
5 M. Pongracic
20 A. Jimenez
71 E. Kospo
33 Viery
21 V. Valdepenas
8 R. Mandragora
80 G. Fabbian
42 C. Inao Oulai
11 A. Gudmundsson
9 M. Kean
72 B. Mazzeo
70 F. Croci

Coach: Fabio Grosso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,57
🔒
U
3,95
🔒
B
5,76
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,85
🔒
U2,5
1,89
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Matteo Marcenaro · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.